VIX At Lowest Level Since June 2007
Back to 2007.
Posts Tagged ‘VIX’
Everything Is Just Fine
Well, S&P 500 is moving steadily to 1200. Equity markets are disregarding anything happening in the real world, both positive or negative. VIX, together with historical volatility is flirting with the post Lehman lows. Everything is just fine. It looks nothing will change, but I’m sure it will. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. VIX
Turning-Point
The markets have arrived to the crucial point for the short term direction. If the markets manage to close above today’s close at least for three consecutive sessions we could be poised for a breakout to the above. If the today’s levels don’t hold up the route to S&P 500 1000 mark is open. Chart […]
Targets
One of the most important piece of data being reported this week is Chinese money supply. When giving a little thought to the meter, it gives a negative impulse to the markets turned both ways. If the growth continues we have asset bubbles forming and inflation threat; If growth slows down we have a threat […]
Questions, Questions…
I’m puzzled by the market action in recent days. It fells that something is wrong, but I major move down doesn’t seem probable. The news and blogosphere are full of stories on Mr. Bernanke and AIG/Goldman Sachs/Societe Generale unwinding. Both are neither interesting neither useful in investing. Who cares what happened more than year ago, […]
Full Blown Panic
Equity collapsed. VIX exploded. Monday will be a big day for the markets. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. VIX
China & VIX
The trading in Asia and Europe today was dominated by China export data. Apparently China exports rose 17.7% y-o-y for December almost reaching pre-crisis levels. The consensus was at 5%. In the same time imports grew 55.9% y-o-y, vs. the consensus forecast of 32.5% . The trade surplus reached $18.4 billion in December, about 60% […]
New Stimulus
After Germany (the U.S. is stimulating all the time), Japan announced some sort of stimulus. Telegraph story: Japan unveils $80bn of direct spending in $274bn stimulus package. $80 is peanuts for a Japan size of economy. The monetary stimulus was also small. Looks like politicians are trying to convince people they are doing something. Yesterday’s […]
GM CEO Resigns
ADP unemployment for November just came out at -169.000 vs. -209.000 last month. Similar as with jobless claims, the job loses are coming down, but U.S. economy is still losing jobs. The story of the day in the U.S. yesterdays was GM CEO Fritz Henderson resignation. The resignation followed the Motor Vehicle Sales but apparently […]
VIX Meltdown
We move fast up and down. Will watch carefully, maybe a long volatility opportunity. Chart 1. VIX
Sunshine Again
A lot of action on the earnings losses and economic announcements front. So, let’s start. Initial jobless claims came at 512k vs. 523k consensus and 530k the week before. Finally some improvement, but still at some 170k job losses a month.
Markets, off-course, cheered the data. All major indexes ended with nice gains of a 2% and more. We will see if the positive action continues after the tomorrows unemployment figures. Could be, consensus on non-farm payrolls is pretty low at 175k job loses, I think we could manage to beet that.
Rally Stop
We have had a nice shoot up yesterday after the ISM Manufacturing Index release, but the gains flattened during the day. The ISM Manufacturing Index came at 55.7 vs. 53 consensus and 52.6 last month. It’s a diffusion index, I don’t care really, but markets react sometimes.
Meltdown
Markets on the on the edge of the cliff. I’m unsettled because I managed only to re-initiate my long USO 39 January puts position, didn’t re-initiate the similar SPY position. Risk control, sometimes you miss on lice profits. I’ll wait with that, I don’t like to rush into position after such run.
Reversal?
Big move down on all risky assets. Possibly a serious testing phase for equity markets ahead. U.S. dollar trying to escape recent down trend, treasuries up. Same story as in recent months but on the opposite side.