Global Macro Perspectives
Almost unchanged from June. Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 875. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is the game. […]
Little late…but better late then never… Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 900. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is […]
Equities With my 1,200 S&P 500 target reached I’ve moved to a kind of a ambiguous stance to the markets. Now I believe the equity markets are bound for a 10%+ down move at least. My mid-term view remains unchanged – this is just a bear market rally; U.S. and E.U. economies will experience same […]
Equities Although I’m convinced that the economy is not pulling a V-shaped almost everywhere except in China and in their commodity based economy satellites I believe that in the short term the equity gains will continue. I have a 1200 S&P 500 target. I have only a small exposure to the markets (via a June […]
The dream of every gold bull got shattered today by Yi Gang, head of the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): It is, in fact, impossible for gold to become a major investment channel for China’s foreign exchange reserves. I have 1,000 tonnes now, and even if I doubled that holding, according to current […]
Equities We have seen a meaningful correction in equities in recent couple of weeks, we have a market that fails to react to presumably good news, we have low levels of cash in equity mutual funds and still high number of bulls; high beta stocks suffered massively; For me this is a setup for reversal, […]
I’m puzzled by the market action in recent days. It fells that something is wrong, but I major move down doesn’t seem probable. The news and blogosphere are full of stories on Mr. Bernanke and AIG/Goldman Sachs/Societe Generale unwinding. Both are neither interesting neither useful in investing. Who cares what happened more than year ago, […]
Equities Equity performance was impressive in recent month, down to the last trading day of the year. Thursday trading showed that the investors are not so confident that the upside will continue, revealing, maybe a moment of truth. Everybody is long because of fear not to miss further gains, but scared of a potential slip. […]
I would always go with Goldman Sachs. Since the sell side analysts and mainstream media are on the story, probably the majority of a downward move has been done. Bloomberg story: Morgan Stanley Sees 5.5% Note as U.S. Faces Deficits. As I already wrote in Shorting Long Dated Treasuries, I believe this is one of […]
It is getting harder for governments to buy United States Treasuries because the US’s shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas… “The United States cannot force foreign governments to increase their holdings of Treasuries,” Zhu said, according to an audio recording of his remarks. “Double the holdings? It is definitely impossible.” “The US […]
Industrial production rose 0.8% in November vs. 0.6% consensus and 0.1% rise in October. Capacity utilization was at 71.3% in November vs. 71.2% consensus and 70.7% level in October. So, moderate surprise to the upside. Producer prices rose 1.8% on a monthly level and 2.7% on a year level. If we take food and energy […]
Ben Bernanke speech yesterday has win over the markets and the positive vibes were hitting the markets even today. Nothing special in the speech, both bulls and bears had their moments, but as bulls are currently in the lead the print was positive in all. Interesting, Mr. Bernanke admitted influencing stock markets: …Partly as the […]
One of my favorite investment themes is shorting the long end of the treasury curve. Something similar (just a institutional version) are playing prominent investors (ex. and current hedge fund managers) like Julian Robertson, Jim Rogers, David Einhorn and others.
Interesting action with the VIX yesterday, break out to the 52 weeks low and then rebound to the upside. Looks someone was buying insurance after the run yesterday.
Lots of attention today to the declining dollar. Interesting article on that theme in the WSJ by David Malpass from the Encima Global LLC. WSJ link: The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity.