Global Macro Perspectives
Retail sales fell 1.2% in May . The consensus was at 0.2%, April reading was a gain of 0.4%. Autos taken out, the figure was -1.1%; the consensus was at 0.1%; prior reading at 0.4%. Big and clear disappointment and a confirmation of a major economic slowdown coming in the second half of the year. Chart 1. […]
Retail sales rose 0.4% in March . The consensus was at 0.2%, March reading of 1.6%. Autos taken out, the figure was also 0.4%; the consensus was at 0.5%; prior reading at 0.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Retail sales
Retail sales rose 1.6% in March . The consensus was at 1.2%, February reading at 0.3%. Autos taken out, the figure was 0.6%; the consensus was at 0.5%; prior reading at 0.8%. The Easter was earlier this year, so noting to get excited here. Chart 1. U.S. Retail sales
Just for the record retail sales rose 0.3% in February (courtesy of weather adjustment; without that we would have -0.1%) . The consensus was at -0.2%, January reading at 0.5%. Autos taken out, the figure was 0.8%; the consensus was at 0%; prior reading at 0.6%. Chart 1. U.S. Retail sales
The initial jobless claims positively surprised declining 40.000 from the prior week and reaching 440.000. The consensus was at 467.000. It looks that combined with census hiring the positive cold continue. The markets yesterday closed positively yesterday on news that E.U. will back up Greece. The statement was obviously a product of lack of consensus. […]
Could well be. Today’s extension of the rally was on the back of retail sales figures. Retail sales rose 1.4% in October vs. 0.9% consensus and 1.5% decrease in September. Retail sales ex. autos rose 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% growth in September. Obviously the low base in September reading (cash-for-clunkers ended in August) […]
Just to touch briefly yesterdays retail sales. The figure was -1.5%; 0.5% ex autos vs. -2.1% and 0.3% consensus. Prior readings were 2.7% and 1.1%. Nothing to cheer here, most important aspect for me is the consequences of government stimulus withdrawal. The additional demand just evaporates.
Lots of attention today to the declining dollar. Interesting article on that theme in the WSJ by David Malpass from the Encima Global LLC. WSJ link: The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity.