Global Macro Perspectives
Very interesting comment in the todays Financial Times dealing with the China/U.S./U.K. currency stand-off in 1930s. The roles are a little bit changed but the lessons learnt are interesting in todays context. Finacial Times article: Lessons from the 1930s for a rising renminbi.
Little late…but better late then never… Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 900. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is […]
Equities With my 1,200 S&P 500 target reached I’ve moved to a kind of a ambiguous stance to the markets. Now I believe the equity markets are bound for a 10%+ down move at least. My mid-term view remains unchanged – this is just a bear market rally; U.S. and E.U. economies will experience same […]
Equities Although I’m convinced that the economy is not pulling a V-shaped almost everywhere except in China and in their commodity based economy satellites I believe that in the short term the equity gains will continue. I have a 1200 S&P 500 target. I have only a small exposure to the markets (via a June […]
Equities In the macro arena we have leading indicators rolling over, and a stream of worse-than-expected data pieces on U.S. housing, U.S. employment, U.S. durable goods ordered and large move lower by consumer confidence. Seems that the markets do not appreciate the data. Things that move the markets are only FED policy on rates, dollar […]
One of the most important piece of data being reported this week is Chinese money supply. When giving a little thought to the meter, it gives a negative impulse to the markets turned both ways. If the growth continues we have asset bubbles forming and inflation threat; If growth slows down we have a threat […]
Markets still focus on Europe and in particular Greece. There are some rumors today that Unicredit and Deutsche bank have ceased to accept Greek government bonds as a collateral; there are also some rumors that the capital flight from Greece is reaching alarming levels. It looks the Greece story is approaching its climax and we […]
Equities We have seen a meaningful correction in equities in recent couple of weeks, we have a market that fails to react to presumably good news, we have low levels of cash in equity mutual funds and still high number of bulls; high beta stocks suffered massively; For me this is a setup for reversal, […]
I’m puzzled by the market action in recent days. It fells that something is wrong, but I major move down doesn’t seem probable. The news and blogosphere are full of stories on Mr. Bernanke and AIG/Goldman Sachs/Societe Generale unwinding. Both are neither interesting neither useful in investing. Who cares what happened more than year ago, […]
Equities Equity performance was impressive in recent month, down to the last trading day of the year. Thursday trading showed that the investors are not so confident that the upside will continue, revealing, maybe a moment of truth. Everybody is long because of fear not to miss further gains, but scared of a potential slip. […]
I feels like the markets are searching for a new theme. The signs of a U.S. dollar strength have scared off recent themes (falling dollar = rising risk assets). Combined with a Bank of America capital issuance and a desperate attempts of Citigroup and Wells Fargo to do the same have completely altered the investing […]
After Germany (the U.S. is stimulating all the time), Japan announced some sort of stimulus. Telegraph story: Japan unveils $80bn of direct spending in $274bn stimulus package. $80 is peanuts for a Japan size of economy. The monetary stimulus was also small. Looks like politicians are trying to convince people they are doing something. Yesterday’s […]
Well I must admit that I don’t have a clue what’s happening in the markets now. The markets opened positive on large positive surprise in non-farm payrolls and in mid of trading everything reversed. Three reasons come to my mind: first is a deeper look in unemployment numbers; the second one would be the new […]
Nonfarm Payrolls for November came out at -11.000 vs. -100.000 consensus and – 190.000 in September. A clear improvement and a positive surprise for the markets. Chart 1. Non-farm Payrolls Monthly and Yearly Change The unemployment edged lower to 10.0% from 10.2% in December. Consensus was at 10.2%. Chart 2. Civilian Unemployment Rate The equity […]
I am starting a monthly strategy overview to have my strategy in one place and a to test accuracy of my views. Written revisions and accommodations would also contribute to my investment discipline. Equities I have been surprised by the market strength as the market rejected the Dubai turmoil as a correction catalyst. This has […]