Global Macro Perspectives
In the last months global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see signs of personal consumption and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Fall in initial jobless claims is clearly being offset by inflow of people into the workforce; job creation still weak.
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 7.7%; Panamax Index rose 2.2%; Supramax Index rose 7.2%; Handysize Index was up 3.6%.
Stockpiles of iron ore and steel are falling, so we have no prof of falling demand in China (jet). I still expect Chinese buyers returning to the market and propping rates.
Very nervous and volatile week. Markets again on crossroad; to reiterate my view: I expect rate recovery in near term, if rates fail to rebound and if Chinese commodity demand doesn’t return soon I would be very worried.
Baltic dry index fell 6.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.4%; Panamax Index fell 13.8%; Supramax Index was down 8.4%; Handysize Index fell 5.4%.
Capsize Index started forming a bottom; Steel inventory falling; As I wrote last Monday I expect Chinese buyers returning to the market soon and substantial ramp up in iron ore imports.
Baltic dry index fell 5.7% last week; Capesize Index was down 7.9%; Panamax Index rose 6.3%; Supramax Index was down 7.4%; Handysize Index was down 3.1%.
Apparently China has slowed down the rate of purchases here also. Despite falling stockpiles Chinese buying is weak which means rates are falling.
In the last month global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see some signs of retail sales and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Recent fall in initial jobless claims has to be confirmed this week as […]
(For The Week Ending October 29, 2010) Baltic dry index fell 1.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.5%; Panamax Index rose 8.6%; Supramax Index was down 2.3%; Handysize Index was down 5.6%. Chinese demand strong, supply of available ships is enough to keep prices at current level. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. […]
Baltic dry index fell 1.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 0.6%; Panamax Index fell 1.6%; Supramax Index was down 3.6%; Handysize Index was down 4.4%. Not much happening here. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. Iron Ore Inventory At Chinese […]
Baltic dry index rose 2.4% last week; Capesize Index was up 6.6%; Panamax Index fell 6.2%; Supramax Index was down 1.9%; Handysize Index was down 3.8%. Capesizes still leading on iron ore demand from China. Strange that other vessel classes and not following… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart […]
Baltic dry index rose 10.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 19.2%; Panamax Index fell 0.4%; Supramax Index rose 2.8%; Handysize Index was down 0.5%. So, capesizes again leading. Strong iron ore demand from China. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. […]
This months strategy is a little bit late because your favorite blogger is feeling (a bit) nihilistic in the last weeks. We have had a nice run in September in almost all asset classes. Reasons: recent economic data is not deteriorating as fast as feared and the central bankers determination to extend monetary stimulus is stronger […]
Baltic dry index rose 0.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 9.5%; Panamax Index fell 11.3%; Supramax Index fell 1.9%; Handysize Index was down 2.9%. So, capesize gains offset other component losses. Data flow is tainted by holiday season in China (Mid Autumn Festival – from September 22 to September 24 and National Day – from October 1 to […]
Baltic dry index fell 8.7% last week; Capesize Index was down 10.3%; Panamax Index fell 7.1%; Supramax Index fell 6.6%; Handysize Index was down 1.5%. Baltic dry index is off 18.6% from recent peek. Holiday season in China (Mid Autumn Festival – from September 22 to September 24 and National Day – from October 1 to October […]
Baltic dry index fell 10.7% last week; Capesize Index was down 13.7%; Panamax Index also fell 13.7%; Supramax Indexes fell 1.7%; Handysize Index rose 0.6%, China iron ore stockpiles moved sharply higher offsetting last week’s inventory draw. We will probably see increased demand with the start of new quarter and lower iron ore benchmark prices. Not much happening […]
Baltic dry index rose 4.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 2.1%; Panamax Index rose 8.7%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 2.7% and 1.1% respectively. Iron ore stockpiles moved sharply lower, suggesting demand will be solid in near-term. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. […]