Global Macro Perspectives
Equities Economic data released in recent month or so is on a absolute and relative basis weak. The difference from July is that the consensus has moved downwards, so the markets focuses on comparing actual data with consensus and disregarding absolute levels. But we are here to earn some money, not waste our time on […]
Equities Economic data released in recent month or so is dominated by bellow consensus readings and on absolute level pointing to only marginal and slowing growth. Consumer demand proxies point to deceasing level of consumer demand. Unemployment is high and it is not falling. The government stimulus is wearing off. But the market is rising despite all of that […]
This is supposed to be bearish. Chart 1. S&P 500
On a completely no news and no economic data day, market tried to stage some kind of a rebound and if we judge by the current situation failed. That tells a lot… Chart 1. S&P 500
Almost unchanged from June. Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 875. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is the game. […]
Technicians have drawn the S&P 500 line in the sand at 1.040 points. Every investor noways considers that a critical technical level. It got broken a few times intra-day, but now we have first closing bellow. The next resistance is at 880, if we get three consecutive closings bellow 1.040 that would be my next target. Chart 1. […]
Little late…but better late then never… Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 900. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is […]
Belisarius was mentally away from the market as he was taking an industry exam… He is sorry for wasting half a year on that, but that’s a thing of a past now… Thanks to my much relaxed time schedule, the TaintedAlpha.com Blog will have receive some new and improved content and features in following weeks. Returning to the markets. Things don’t look good. The […]
The resistance at 1060 (or so) is broken, it looks we will be fast at 900. Chart 1. S&P 500 Weekly
They should know that the effects don’t last more than a few hours…. Chart 1. EUR/USD Exchange rate & S&P 500
Ugly looking candle today. Looks the reason is EUR/JPY carry trade unwind, probably as a result of European debt problems. Chart 1. S&P 500 Chart 2. Euro vs. Japanese Yen
Equities With my 1,200 S&P 500 target reached I’ve moved to a kind of a ambiguous stance to the markets. Now I believe the equity markets are bound for a 10%+ down move at least. My mid-term view remains unchanged – this is just a bear market rally; U.S. and E.U. economies will experience same […]
In case you live on a different planet, this is the collection of articles and blog posts on the biggest story this year: SEC/Goldman linkfest by FT Alphaville. If you look at the media, they love it and they have incorporated all the bailout injustice into the story. Dylan Ratigan show: Visit msnbc.com for breaking […]
With the short term target (almost) reached I would take the money off the table. Chart 1. S&P 500
Equities Although I’m convinced that the economy is not pulling a V-shaped almost everywhere except in China and in their commodity based economy satellites I believe that in the short term the equity gains will continue. I have a 1200 S&P 500 target. I have only a small exposure to the markets (via a June […]