January 18th, 2012 by Belisarius
The consensus with which I agree is that the Euro zone is heading into a recession. While the economic activity has somewhat improved over the last months in the U.S. I remain doubtful whether the U.S. can escape the recession when Europe enters one. The data coming from China doesn’t (jet) point to a hard landing. For the time being it looks like that the Chinese government is in control. The measures to contain inflation and raising real-estate prices are successful, while in the same time China is has taken early steps to increase domestic consumption and re-balance the economy. One should not disregard and keep close watch on soft data coming from China especially in real estate and commodity related industries which are not reflected in the official data and could be pointing to serious issues.
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October 4th, 2011 by Belisarius
Leading economic indicators are pointing to a recession. At the time being it looks like it could be a mild one, but taken into account all the unknowns (EMU future, China slowdown, bank balance-sheet question) it could easily develop into something more ominous.
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March 7th, 2011 by Belisarius
FED pre-announcement via. WSJ…
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December 6th, 2010 by Belisarius
Summary: Economy is barely expanding at a sustainable pace; Will print more money if needed.
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November 17th, 2010 by Belisarius
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% in October vs. 0.3% consensus and September reading of 0.1%. On year level CPI inflation is running at 1.2%…
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November 4th, 2010 by Belisarius
And the view from the man himself. The Washington Post: What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability. By Ben S. Bernanke Thursday, November 4, 2010 Two years have passed since the worst financial crisis since the 1930s dealt a body blow to the world economy. Working with policymakers at […]
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November 4th, 2010 by Belisarius
This is the best QE2 analysis out-there. FT Blogs Post: QE2 is about asset prices, not the economy
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October 27th, 2010 by Belisarius
The newspaper with the best track record on guessing (or maybe pre-announcing) FED policy changes reports that the QE 2 size will be smaller than market expects. The central bank is likely to unveil a program of U.S. Treasury bond purchases worth a few hundred billion dollars over several months, a measured approach in contrast to purchases of […]
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