Global Macro Perspectives
Nonfarm payrolls fell 125.000 in June. The consensus was at -125.000, revised reading for May was an increase of 433.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.5% vs prior reading of 9.7% and consensus of 9.8%. Nothing special in the report, meaningful new hiring nowhere to be found. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm payrolls increased 162.000 in March. The consensus was at 200.000, revised reading for March was -14.000. The unemployment rate remained at 9.7%. Below consensus reading, despite census hiring. Weather impact was 100.000, so “core” +60.000 is not much of an improvement. Chart 1. Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
As I expected non-farm payrolls came out yesterday at -36.000 for February vs. -50.000 consensus and a revised -26.000 figure for January. Unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.7% vs. 9.8% consensus. We could say that the job losses for U.S. economy are approaching its end. Chart 1. Unemployment Rate & Non-Farm Payrolls Change
Well, I was wrong. Nonfarm payrolls for December were reported at -85.000 vs 10.000 consensus and 4.000 the month before (revised up 15.000). Unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0%. Average hourly earnings was up 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus and 0.1% in November. Average workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours. A negative surprise. Weak negative reaction […]
Nonfarm Payrolls for November came out at -11.000 vs. -100.000 consensus and – 190.000 in September. A clear improvement and a positive surprise for the markets. Chart 1. Non-farm Payrolls Monthly and Yearly Change The unemployment edged lower to 10.0% from 10.2% in December. Consensus was at 10.2%. Chart 2. Civilian Unemployment Rate The equity […]
Bad numbers on employment continue. Non-farm payrolls came at -190k vs. -175 k consensus and -263k last month.. Contrary to my guess yesterday. Unemployment has hit 26-year high of 10.2%. Average hourly earnings up 0.3% vs. 0.1% consensus. Average workweek at 33 hours, down from 33.1 last month.
It has been nice away from the computers, markets and problems last week spent at the sea. I’ve visited 5 countries, 7 towns and I was most impressed by Spain and Barcelona.
I was pretty pissed when a saw my SPY put options position being sold on the Monday market opening on the back of a stop loss order I left when I was leaving for vacation. I hate leaving my positions unattended but hate even more earning + 15% instead of +50%. Never mind, it looks at the moment I could have an opportunity to enter into same position at the approximately same costs.
The short term top I wrote about in earlier posts evolved to nothing more than just a dip buying opportunity and it looks like we are going to stay range bound unless we have some surprise news. The economic data from the last week was boring, nothing interesting even a bit, and nothing that would change my views. Only piece of data that occupied my mind (for few second at least) was unemployment report. Non farm payrolls for August came at -216k vs -230k consensus and -276k in July (as usual revised downwards from -247k). Unemployment rate hit 9.7% vs. 9.5% consensus. Obviously the pace of job losses has slowed down, but with such high unemployment the recovery is not just around the corner. Off course, media can find optimism in the worst piece of data. According to Bloomberg this is positive for company earnings. Yeah, sure…. Bloomberg link: U.S. Recovery Leaving Workers Jobless May Spur Company Profits