Rig Count Weekly – April 4, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 26; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 11.
Global Macro Perspectives
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 26; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 11.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.8%.
Markets adapted well to the new setup (ex. Libyan oil and with increased Japanese product demand), risk is on the downside.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 12; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 7.
Working gas in storage fell 56 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 42 Bcf.
Storage level is 3 Bcf higher than same time year ago.
Japanese nuclear disaster could be a game changer for natural gas as LNG cargoes bound for the U.S. could be diverted to Japan. This could clear the oversupply glut.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 26; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 17.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs rose for 100 in February.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.9%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was unchanged.
Japan earthquake effects: I seems that Japanese crude oil demand will initially fall because one fifth of Japanese refinery capacity is offline, but subsequently will rise fast because only possible substitution to nuclear electricity generation (one fourth off-line and years needed to bring it back on-line) is gas and oil-fired generation. Product demand (residual fuel oil and diesel fuel especially) will rise fast in coming days.
To sum up, near term positive for product tankers, negative for crude oil carriers. Longer term positive for both. Positive for LNG carriers.
Working gas in storage fell 71 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 78 Bcf.
Storage level is 48 Bcf higher than same time year ago.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 18; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 7.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 15; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1.
Working gas in storage fell 81 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 83 Bcf.
Storage level is 23 Bcf lower than same time year ago.
Heating season is nearing its end, the market is well supplied, so no fundamental reasons for natural gas price recovery.
This is it for this winter…
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 7; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1.
Working gas in storage fell 233 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 235 Bcf.
Storage level is 114 Bcf lower than same time year ago.
Heating season is nearing its end, the market is well supplied, so no fundamental reasons for natural gas price recovery.
Reason for price falling in recent week were milder weather forecasts. Technically natural gas is oversold, s I would not exclude price rebound despite unfavorable storage numbers.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 13; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 5.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs fell for 6 in January.
Working gas in storage fell 209 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 197 Bcf.
Storage level is 71 Bcf lower than same time year ago.
Working gas in storage fell 189 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 187 Bcf.
Storage level is 53 Bcf lower than same time year ago.