Global Macro Perspectives
As I wrote yesterday: Can’t See The Forest For The Trees; the EU deficit and debt problems are far smaller than for the U.S., particular U.S. states, U.K. and Japan. Jean- Claude Trichet seems to agree. Bloomberg story: Trichet Struggles to Convince on Euro-Area Solidity. Still, Trichet said the “solidity” of the euro area “is […]
The market looks like today is just an intro. The 1.085 level broken, and technicians say the next target is 1.035 (I don’t believe in that, but since a lot of investors looks at that…). Beside bad initial jobless claims (480.000 vs. 455.000 consensus and 470.000 consensus) the main theme is PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, […]
Well, I it is safe to say that again markets rallied on no improved fundamentals and on light volume during holiday time. The most profitable companies have lagged during this run. Bloomberg link: Most Profitable CEOs Get Smallest Gains in S&P 500. Anything could happen, the rally could last…. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao again reaffirmed […]
I feels like the markets are searching for a new theme. The signs of a U.S. dollar strength have scared off recent themes (falling dollar = rising risk assets). Combined with a Bank of America capital issuance and a desperate attempts of Citigroup and Wells Fargo to do the same have completely altered the investing […]
After Germany (the U.S. is stimulating all the time), Japan announced some sort of stimulus. Telegraph story: Japan unveils $80bn of direct spending in $274bn stimulus package. $80 is peanuts for a Japan size of economy. The monetary stimulus was also small. Looks like politicians are trying to convince people they are doing something. Yesterday’s […]
I am starting a monthly strategy overview to have my strategy in one place and a to test accuracy of my views. Written revisions and accommodations would also contribute to my investment discipline. Equities I have been surprised by the market strength as the market rejected the Dubai turmoil as a correction catalyst. This has […]
As reported yesterday, Japan’s machinery orders rose 10.5% vs. 4.1% consensus in September. Bloomberg story: Japan Machine Orders Rise More Than Expected; Recovery May Last. Off course it sparked optimism for the bulls. Today Japan’s October producer prices came out at -6.7% vs. 6% consensus. This was 10th month in a row with negative figure. […]
Belisarius is annoyed with united horn blowing on dollar going further down and gold going further up. So annoyed it is on the brinks of placing a short gold and long dollar trade. I’ll cool down and think on that again. Such unified consensus always leads to opposite outcome. One of the reasons is (for […]