Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index rose 8.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 8.5%; Panamax Index rose 9.4%; Supramax Index increased 5.9%; Handysize Index was up 2.3%.
Iron ore and steel prices fell on high inventory (iron ore inventory near record high; steel inventory record high). Thermal coal inventory data not released.
Baltic dry index fell 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 8.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.6%; Supramax Index rose 9.3%; Handysize Index was up 2.7%.
Iron ore and steel inventory at new all time high. Thermal coal inventory rising fast.
This could be a canary in a coal mine for Chinese economy…
Baltic dry index rose 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.2%; Panamax Index rose 23.7%; Supramax Index increased 11.9%; Handysize Index rose 3.2%.
Shipping rates are rising after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore unchanged at record high, iron ore price rising. Steel inventories are going vertical and moving towards record highs. Thermal coal stockpiles ticked upwards.
I would expect further gains in rates because of low level from which the after holiday recovery started. Overall stockpile data paints kind of worrying picture of Chinese economy.
Longer term – I expect that rates will be on average bellow break-even (2.200 on BDI) for next couple of years on oversupply of vessels.
Baltic dry index rose 12.9% last week; Capesize Index was up 13.5%; Panamax Index rose 20.2%; Supramax Index increased 3.9%; Handysize Index rose 0.9%.
Shipping rates rose after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore, steel and coke are rising in-sync with their respected prices. Buyers probably stockpiling in fear of even higher prices.
I would expect further gains in rates; Still keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
Baltic dry index fell 8.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 5.0%; Panamax Index rose 0.8%; Supramax Index decreased 9.8%; Handysize Index fell 10.9%.
Stockpile data was not reported last week because Chinese holidays. Iron ore price fell 4%.
We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
Baltic dry index fell 17.0% last week; Capesize Index was down 12.1%; Panamax Index fell 19.0%; Supramax Index decreased 15.3%; Handysize Index fell 7.1%.
Iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports at all-time high, iron ore demand will be weaker because of lunar new year (February 3rd). All this looks quite negative for dry bulk rates.
Dry bulk companies news flow very negative with Korea line receivership and Excel maritime postponing $250 million debt offering.
We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
Baltic dry index fell 4.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.4%; Panamax Index fell 14.2%; Supramax Index rose 2.4%; Handysize Index was up 1.6%.
Iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports at all-time high, iron ore demand will be weaker because of lunar new year (February 3rd). All this looks quite negative for dry bulk rates.
Baltic dry index fell 5.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 14.5%; Panamax Index fell 0.7%; Supramax Index rose 3.9%; Handysize Index fell 0.6%.
Iron ore stockpiles have risen a bit despite Queensland floods, that’s kind of worrying because despite Queensland supply disruptions there is no apparent physical lack of iron ore. On the other hand it seems Baltic dry index is forming a bottom at 1.500 level.
Baltic dry index fell 14.3% in the last two weeks; Capesize Index was down 20.5%; Panamax Index rose 4.9%; Supramax Index was down 10.2%; Handysize Index fell 7.1%.
Iron stockpiles & steel inventory mostly unchanged; Iron ore and steel prices stable. Today’s China trade balance data was weak and I would be careful until we find out whether is it government orchestrated year end slowdown or a genuine one.
Baltic dry index fell 11.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 13.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.4%; Supramax Index was down 7.4%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.
I’m getting a little bit worried but to repeat last week’s comment: Iron stockpiles & steel inventory mostly unchanged; Iron ore and steel prices stable. No indication of any major disruptions in Chinese economy. Low rates are probably byproduct of excess supply of ships and seasonal factors (weaker construction steel demand in China during winter months).
Baltic dry index fell 4.6% last week; Capesize Index was up 1.1%; Panamax Index fell 13.6%; Supramax Index was down 3.4%; Handysize Index rose 1.1%.
Iron stockpiles & steel inventory mostly unchanged; Iron ore and steel prices stable. No indication of any major disruptions in Chinese economy. Low rates are probably byproduct of excess supply of ships and seasonal factors (weaker construction steel demand in China during winter months).
Baltic dry index fell 3.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 9.7%; Panamax Index fell 1.1%; Supramax Index rose 4.8%; Handysize Index was up 1.7%.
Iron stockpiles ticked up a bit; Steel inventory falling.
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 7.7%; Panamax Index rose 2.2%; Supramax Index rose 7.2%; Handysize Index was up 3.6%.
Stockpiles of iron ore and steel are falling, so we have no prof of falling demand in China (jet). I still expect Chinese buyers returning to the market and propping rates.
Very nervous and volatile week. Markets again on crossroad; to reiterate my view: I expect rate recovery in near term, if rates fail to rebound and if Chinese commodity demand doesn’t return soon I would be very worried.
Baltic dry index fell 6.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.4%; Panamax Index fell 13.8%; Supramax Index was down 8.4%; Handysize Index fell 5.4%.
Capsize Index started forming a bottom; Steel inventory falling; As I wrote last Monday I expect Chinese buyers returning to the market soon and substantial ramp up in iron ore imports.