FOMC Statement – April 25, 2012
As expected, a non-event.
Statement wording mostly unchanged, federal funds rates at exceptionally low levels at least through late 2014.
A full statement with changes tracked bellow.
Global Macro Perspectives
As expected, a non-event.
Statement wording mostly unchanged, federal funds rates at exceptionally low levels at least through late 2014.
A full statement with changes tracked bellow.
Statement wording unchanged, federal funds rates at exceptionally low levels at least through late 2014.
Actions as expected: operation twist has started. The committee has described the economic condition much more negatively then expected.
Most important sentence: “The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.” Economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected.
Three dissenters!!!
FED acknowledged the recent slowdown in economic growth but the committee believes slowdown is only temporary. Committee expects that the pace of recovery will pick up and inflation rate subside to levels at or below those consistent with the FED’s dual mandate.
Asset purchases will be completed this month.
No indications of any new policies (jet).
As expected: rising commodity prices increased inflation but the effect are only transitory, asset purchase programs will be completed as scheduled, extended period formulation still here.
The wording on strength of economic recovery is upgraded (“economic recovery is on a firmer footing”). Some improvement in labor market recognized.
Energy and commodities rising prices effect on inflation downplayed.
New: Formulation that despite rise in commodity prices longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and; Since Mr. Hoenig in no longer a voting member all FOMC members voted in favor of FOMC monetary policy action.
Literally nothing new here.
$600 million over 8 months. More than consensus, but less what was expected before WSJ story. The pace of asset buying on lower bound of expectations. FED Press Release. Slow recovery confirmed. Core inflation measures moved lower. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in […]
They admitted only that the pace of recovery has slowed in recent months and introduced a hint of additional measures. Like I expected only the weakening economic activity is not fully addressed. Unexpectedly a fear of deflation and a will to fight it is introduced into statement (in two instances), in my view completely off the mark. The main […]
Equities Economic data released in recent month or so is on a absolute and relative basis weak. The difference from July is that the consensus has moved downwards, so the markets focuses on comparing actual data with consensus and disregarding absolute levels. But we are here to earn some money, not waste our time on […]
And we have QE 1.1. Lite. Direct monetization. Basic money printing. I’m surprised FED reacted so fast. To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities […]
Equities Economic data released in recent month or so is dominated by bellow consensus readings and on absolute level pointing to only marginal and slowing growth. Consumer demand proxies point to deceasing level of consumer demand. Unemployment is high and it is not falling. The government stimulus is wearing off. But the market is rising despite all of that […]
Almost unchanged from June. Equities Only extremely favorable economic data could change the negative trend established. This is highly unlikely. So I would say we will soon see S&P 500 at 875. On a macro level, the stimulus is wearing off, politicians and central bankers are not ready to continue with loose fiscal an monetary policies, just the opposite, austerity is the game. […]