Global Macro Perspectives
In the last months global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see signs of personal consumption and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Fall in initial jobless claims is clearly being offset by inflow of people into the workforce; job creation still weak.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 14.2%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 8.9%.
I would speculate that China resumed its imports pace and propped rates.
Crude oil stocks rose 1.0 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 0.6 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 0.2 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 1.1 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 3.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were unchanged for the week.
Refinery utilization fell 2.9% to 82.6%.
Implied crude oil demand fell 0.5 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports fell 0.9 million barrels to 8.5 million barrels.
No other comment than that demand is week, stocks are high since the start of last recession and this is not changing or improving.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 7; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 17.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 4.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 4.0%.
Back to normal: supply of ships outweighing demand.
Crude oil stocks rose 1.0 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were up 1.9 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 0.5 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks fell 0.4 million barrels; Other oils stocks decreased 1.4 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.3 million barrels lower than the week before.
Refinery utilization rose 1.5% to 85.5%.
Implied crude oil demand remained unchanged.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports rose 1.3 million barrels to 9.4 million barrels.
Excess of excesses are now cleared; demand is unchanged and now again the stocks will probably again begin to rise.
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 11; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 19. Significant shift from natural gas drilling to crude oil. This should be supportive for natural gas price.
On world scale number of drilling rigs rose for 43 rigs in October. All of the gains coming from North America.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 9.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 13.6%.
Rates rose on falling crude oil stocks and distillate demand from China…
Crude oil stocks fell 7.3 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were down 2.7 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 1.1 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.9 million barrels; Other oils stocks rose 0.7 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 9.1 million barrels lower than the week before.
Refinery utilization rose 1.6% to 84.0%.
Implied crude oil demand rose 0.3 million barrels to 14.5 million barrels.
Crude oil and petroleum product net imports fell 0.2 million barrels to 8.1 million barrels.
Refiners disciplined in cutting capacity and stocks;stockpiles overall still high; if China reduced imports and U.S. have reduced imports one wonders where excess crude oil is ends up…
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 3.2%.
Despite popular belief that China is driving crude oil demand the data for October shows that China imported just 16.4 million tons of crude oil. This is the lowest level since April 2009 and it is 30% bellow September imports. In the U.S., despite the recent draw stockpiles are still high and the demand probably will not change much…
(For The Week Ending October 29, 2010) QE 2 !!! Chart 1. Crude Oil Futures Chart 2. Crude Oil Futures Curve Chart 3. Weekly Change in U.S. Crude Oil and Distillates Stocks Chart 4. Crude Oil, Gasoline and Distillate Fuel Implied Demand Chart 5. Crude Oil Implied Demand Seasonality Chart 6. U.S. Total Crude Oil, […]
In the last month global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see some signs of retail sales and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Recent fall in initial jobless claims has to be confirmed this week as […]
(For The Week Ending October 29, 2010) Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 1; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 3. Chart 1. Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Change Chart 2. Baker Hughes Weekly U.S. Rig Count Chart 3. Baker Hughes Monthly World Rig Count
(For The Week Ending October 29, 2010) Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 3.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 1.7%. Chart 1. Baltic Tanker Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Tanker Indexes
(For The Week Ending October 22, 2010) Crude oil stocks rose 5.0 million barrels; Gasoline stocks were down 4.4 million barrels; Distillate stocks were down 1.6 million barrels; Propane/propylene stocks rose 0.7 million barrels; Other oils stocks rose 0.5 million barrels; Total crude oil and petroleum stocks were 0.6 million barrels higher than the week […]