Rig Count Weekly – April 4, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 26; Number of natural gas drilling rigs rose for 11.
Posts Tagged ‘Crude Oil’
Tanker Weekly – April 4, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.7%.
Activity increased on Libyan oil substitution, rated steady despite more demand.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – March 24, 2011
I was wrong on the assumption that West will let Gaddafi win the war in Libya. U.N. approved military intervention will keep the Libyan oil out of the markets for longer then previously thought. This is positive for crude oil price.
Concerning Japan it is reasonable to assume increased derivatives demand, also positive for oil price.
In the U.S. the gasoline draw is looking quite impressive (although it is not demand driven, rather a product of refiner discipline). This could help clear Cushing stockpile glut and close the WTI – Brent pricing gap.
Tanker Weekly – March 21, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.8%.
Markets adapted well to the new setup (ex. Libyan oil and with increased Japanese product demand), risk is on the downside.
Rig Count Weekly – March 21, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 12; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 7.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – March 17, 2011
Libya is out of the markets, but judging from the recent events the rebels are on the brink of defeat and since world needs oil purchases of Libyan crude could resume in following months.
Focus in the last few days has shifted to Bahrain, there also the ruling regime is succeeding to restore order using extremely violent measures.
The biggest question is the demand impact of Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster. I believe that short term demand shock is widely underestimated, but for the time being and despite the fundamental facts mentioned above I believe crude oil is bound to rise on all of this uncertainty.
Rig Count Weekly – March 14, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 26; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 17.
On world scale number of oil & gas drilling rigs rose for 100 in February.
Tanker Weekly – March 13, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.9%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was unchanged.
Japan earthquake effects: I seems that Japanese crude oil demand will initially fall because one fifth of Japanese refinery capacity is offline, but subsequently will rise fast because only possible substitution to nuclear electricity generation (one fourth off-line and years needed to bring it back on-line) is gas and oil-fired generation. Product demand (residual fuel oil and diesel fuel especially) will rise fast in coming days.
To sum up, near term positive for product tankers, negative for crude oil carriers. Longer term positive for both. Positive for LNG carriers.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – March 10, 2011
Libya is out of the markets for some time. If demand stays at recent levels crude oil price will go up.
In U.S.: Markets are well supplied, demand historically speaking weak, refining capacity utilization low and crude oil imports. WTI – Brent pricing disparity lower, but still very high.
Refining industry discipline, stockpiling ahead of expected rise in prices and seasonal demand patterns are (very slowly) bringing down stockpiles.
Rig Count Weekly – March 6, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs rose for 18; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 7.
Tanker Weekly – March 6, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 20.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 12.7%.
As I wrote earlier civil war in Libya is driving rates up. Under the assumption European imports of Libyan crude will be replaced by West Africa crude and West African crude exported to Far East substituted with Saudi crude the distance to which crude is transported could be actually reduced. So, when the tankers reposition according to the new transport setup, what remains is only uncertainty driving the markets.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – March 3, 2011
To repeat: If Libya doesn’t restart producing with full capacity soon the price of oil will go up.
In U.S.: Markets are well supplied, demand historically speaking weak, refiners cutting refining capacity and crude oil imports. WTI – Brent pricing disparity still very high.
Rig Count Weekly – February 28, 2011
Number of crude oil drilling rigs fell for 15; Number of natural gas drilling rigs fell for 1.
Tanker Weekly – February 26, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 11.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 11.7%.
As with everything happening this week this was also caused by Libya unrest/civil war. Libya crude oil was primarily exported to nearby markets, so drop in Libya production will have to be substituted from producing countries which are more distant. This caused a rise in shipping rates which will probably continue.
U.S. Petroleum Weekly – February 25, 2011
I already coved Libya importance for crude oil price: Importance Of Libya For World Oil Production.
Few days later, my view is that if Libya doesn’t restart producing with full capacity soon the price of oil will go up.
In U.S.: Markets are well supplied, demand historically speaking weak, refiners cutting refining capacity and crude oil imports. WTI – Brent pricing disparity still very high.