Global Macro Perspectives
I don’t like the hype that follows Nouriel Roubini; ha had a strike of luck (mostly because he was sticking to his same forecasts for years) and now the media grants him excess attention. Never mind, the point I am getting to, is that his thoughts on commodities and economy are almost identical to concepts I am writing about on my blog. Indexuniverse.com interview: Nouriel Roubini: Big Crash Coming.
Housing starts rose 0.5% in September to 590k units vs. 615k consensus representing 2.8% growth. August data was revised down from 598k units reported last month to 587k units. If we take this into account the consensus was projecting 4.7 increase; and the reported figure was 0.5%. Bloomberg link: Housing Starts in U.S. Increased Less Than Forecast.
A wave of reckless optimism has taken over the financial world. We saw new highs in U.S. equities yesterday and European today. As I wrote before “better taken expected” has taken over the investor hart and souls. It doesn’t feel rational for me so I will pass on being long for the time being.
Interesting action with the VIX yesterday, break out to the 52 weeks low and then rebound to the upside. Looks someone was buying insurance after the run yesterday.
hina’s export decline slowed to 15.2% YoY in September from 23.4% in August and 21% consensus. Positive surprise, but still far away from +25% pre-crisis levels. As usual equities and commodities are trading higher on the news; U.S. dolar lower.
The earnings announcement stream continues. Intel posted EPS of $0.33 vs $0.28 consensus. Revenue at $9.4 billion down 7.8% compared with the same period last year. The consensus was at $9.06 billion. More from Reuters: Intel quarterly results beat Street. The earnings season is proving to be what I wrote earlier “better than expected” earnings on cost cutting. It can’t go on indefinitely, we have to see some growth in revenue.
Markets are feeling nervous, I’m feeling nervous. VIX is at the lower bottom of the short term range, it looks it could stay in the range. Gold is hitting new highs today, it’s overbought a little, maybe some consolidation there needed if it is bound to stay at today’s levels.
Returning to my screens after few days of vacation and couple of days of useless erins. Let me recap economic announcements in the last few days. Housing starts at consensus of 598k, building permits at 579k versus consensus of 583k. We have a 20% rise from the lows a few months ago. House prices rose 0.3% vs. consensus of 0.5%. Important indicator to watch, as seasonal effects ad government stimulus could fade into the winter. Mortgage applications up 12.8%.
The market just keeps on going on, you could think that it could go on even further. I would not be particularity surprised to see S&P 500 at 1200. We have equities rallying and at the same time declining US dollar and gold hitting nominally highest level ever.
We have had some spectacular runs from the recent lows both in the equity arena and among commodities. As I am writing this introductory post markets are hitting new highs for the year. Common to these diverse markets is that we have seen little or no material improvement in underlying fundamentals only consolidation at initially depressed levels.