Global Macro Perspectives
We have clear roll over of leading indicators in recent weeks and a deterioration in housing, jobless claims, durable goods orders today and bad consumer confidence reading. Seems that the markets do not appreciate the data. Things that move the markets are only FED policy on rates, dollar strength and Greece debt problems. China credit […]
Markets are down, the negative surprise was Conference Board Consumer Confidence which came out at 46 vs. 55 consensus and 56.5 for January. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Press release. Consumers’ assessment of current-day conditions soured in February. Those claiming conditions are “good” decreased to 6.2 percent from 8.5 percent, while those claiming business […]
Consumer confidence increased in January to 55.9 vs. December’s 53.6 and a consensus of 53.5. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
I was away from the computer and away from the markets, so let me recap most important developments. MBA purchase applications were up 0.8% vs. 3.6% the week before. Retail sales in December disappointed coming out at -0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus and 1.3% in November. Initial jobless claims edged up reaching 444.000 vs. 437.000 consensus […]
Belisarius has a quite severe case of cold, so light posting today. Consumer confidence for December came out at 53 vs. 52.9 consensus and 49.5 prior reading. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices came out flat. Since the indexes are three month rolling averages, fatigue in house price recovery is evident. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Looks like Nakheel PJSC bonds will be paid off in full. Bloomberg link: Abu Dhabi Bails Out Dubai World With $10 Billion.The move has prevented Asian stock exchanges from going into negative territory; Europe is trading up around 1% in average. Short follow up on last weeks U.S. economic data: Jobless claims ticked up reaching […]
Consumer confidence unexpectedly drops to 47.7 vs. 53.1 last month and 54 consensus. The streak of negative signs (just signs for the time being) continues.
It has been nice away from the computers, markets and problems last week spent at the sea. I’ve visited 5 countries, 7 towns and I was most impressed by Spain and Barcelona.
I was pretty pissed when a saw my SPY put options position being sold on the Monday market opening on the back of a stop loss order I left when I was leaving for vacation. I hate leaving my positions unattended but hate even more earning + 15% instead of +50%. Never mind, it looks at the moment I could have an opportunity to enter into same position at the approximately same costs.
Despite better than consensus data on US housing suggesting recovery in housing prices and better than consensus consumer confidence the market failed to rally.