Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index fell 14.5% last week; The hardest hit were Capesizes with 16.3% loss and Panamaxes with 13.3% loss; Supramaxes and Handysizes lost 12.1% and 6.5%. Platou Markets: Chinese iron ore imports fell to 51.9 mt in May from 55.3 mt in April. After being up 11.7% for the first four months of the year, […]
Intriguing article by Financial Times: Property tax offers path to Chinese reforms. To sum up. Chinese government is thinking on introducing a property tax to rein on real-estate speculation. China will start to introduce some form of annual tax on residential property in the coming months. If that does happen – and it is still […]
Belisarius was mentally away from the market as he was taking an industry exam… He is sorry for wasting half a year on that, but that’s a thing of a past now… Thanks to my much relaxed time schedule, the TaintedAlpha.com Blog will have receive some new and improved content and features in following weeks. Returning to the markets. Things don’t look good. The […]
Baltic dry index fell 5.7% last week; The hardest hit sectors was Panamaxes with 8.7% loss and Supramaxes with 8.1% loss; Capesizes and Handysizes lost 2.1% and 3.5%. Expectations running high, stockpiles high, financial crisis threatening to cause a economic crisis. Iron ore prices sliding. It looks the things are slowing down in China. On the other hand ship prises rose […]
Baltic dry index fell 2.2% last week, this time on the back of 10.1% Capesize Index loss. Panamax, Supramax and Handysize Index all recorded gains and outperformed the broader index. We had weaker spot iron ore prices, weaker China steel prices and higher iron ore and thermal coal stockpiles. Capesize activity decreased in the recent […]
As usual all the data from China cones at the same time. So, let’s start. In short: China trade balance for April was marginally positive, but in my opinion the China ability to run large trade surplussed is lost and will not return in short term. Implications are diverse, maybe most important the quantity of […]
From the press release. April’s PMI points to a moderate slowdown in the expansion of manufacturing activity. We see this as good news because it means that Beijing’s policy tightening is starting to cool the overheated economy, which will help to contain inflationary risk in the coming quarters. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & […]
Words from the man himself: China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst. Bloomberg story: China May ‘Crash’ in Next 9 to 12 Months, Faber Says. Well, like most of his calls, this could also be on […]
Equities Although I’m convinced that the economy is not pulling a V-shaped almost everywhere except in China and in their commodity based economy satellites I believe that in the short term the equity gains will continue. I have a 1200 S&P 500 target. I have only a small exposure to the markets (via a June […]
Baltic dry index fell 3.6% in the last week due to massive 18.6% drop in Capesize Index. Panamax, Supramax and Handysize Index ended all in positive territory. The Capesize Index fell due to increased supply of available vessels which outnumbered the also increased number of cargoes needed to be transported and due to capsize/panamax substitution […]
Chinese Prime Minister Mr. Wen Jiabao delivered a pretty straight forward answer on the U.S. led calls for a yuan appreciation. China official stance is: Yuan is not undervalued; the calls for a Yuan appreciation are clear protectionist acts – they plan to support China export led growth; China is concerned about its U.S. dollar […]
China consumer prices rose 2.7% in February vs. consensus of 2.5% and 1.5% in January. In the same time China producer prices rose 5.4% vs. consensus of 5.1% and 4.3% in January. This obviously is starting to represent a problem for The Peoples Bank of China as CPI this high brings real interest rates to […]
China exports were up 45.7% in February vs. 38.3% consensus and 21% in January. Imports rose 44.7% vs. 38% consensus and 85.5% in January. Trade surplus shrank to $7.6 billion vs. $14.2 billion in January. The consensus was at $7.2 billion. The trade surplus is shrinking, less imports now could mean less exports in the […]
The dream of every gold bull got shattered today by Yi Gang, head of the China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE): It is, in fact, impossible for gold to become a major investment channel for China’s foreign exchange reserves. I have 1,000 tonnes now, and even if I doubled that holding, according to current […]
Equities In the macro arena we have leading indicators rolling over, and a stream of worse-than-expected data pieces on U.S. housing, U.S. employment, U.S. durable goods ordered and large move lower by consumer confidence. Seems that the markets do not appreciate the data. Things that move the markets are only FED policy on rates, dollar […]