Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index fell 4.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.4%; Panamax Index fell 14.2%; Supramax Index rose 2.4%; Handysize Index was up 1.6%.
Iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports at all-time high, iron ore demand will be weaker because of lunar new year (February 3rd). All this looks quite negative for dry bulk rates.
Baltic dry index fell 5.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 14.5%; Panamax Index fell 0.7%; Supramax Index rose 3.9%; Handysize Index fell 0.6%.
Iron ore stockpiles have risen a bit despite Queensland floods, that’s kind of worrying because despite Queensland supply disruptions there is no apparent physical lack of iron ore. On the other hand it seems Baltic dry index is forming a bottom at 1.500 level.
Baltic dry index fell 14.3% in the last two weeks; Capesize Index was down 20.5%; Panamax Index rose 4.9%; Supramax Index was down 10.2%; Handysize Index fell 7.1%.
Iron stockpiles & steel inventory mostly unchanged; Iron ore and steel prices stable. Today’s China trade balance data was weak and I would be careful until we find out whether is it government orchestrated year end slowdown or a genuine one.
Baltic dry index fell 11.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 13.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.4%; Supramax Index was down 7.4%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.
I’m getting a little bit worried but to repeat last week’s comment: Iron stockpiles & steel inventory mostly unchanged; Iron ore and steel prices stable. No indication of any major disruptions in Chinese economy. Low rates are probably byproduct of excess supply of ships and seasonal factors (weaker construction steel demand in China during winter months).
POBC raised key one-year lending rate for 0.25% to 5.81%. This was widely expected; I have wrote on this earlier and almost certain there is more of this to come.
Raising interest rates and stalling real-estate prices are a bad cocktail. I will cover China even more extensively next year, as big things could come from here.
Baltic dry index fell 4.6% last week; Capesize Index was up 1.1%; Panamax Index fell 13.6%; Supramax Index was down 3.4%; Handysize Index rose 1.1%.
Iron stockpiles & steel inventory mostly unchanged; Iron ore and steel prices stable. No indication of any major disruptions in Chinese economy. Low rates are probably byproduct of excess supply of ships and seasonal factors (weaker construction steel demand in China during winter months).
Baltic dry index fell 3.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 9.7%; Panamax Index fell 1.1%; Supramax Index rose 4.8%; Handysize Index was up 1.7%.
Iron stockpiles ticked up a bit; Steel inventory falling.
In the last months global economic outlook has improved a bit. In U.S. we can see signs of personal consumption and manufacturing activity growing at soft rates, but growing; at the same time employment, housing, construction spending, durable goods orders are stagnating. Fall in initial jobless claims is clearly being offset by inflow of people into the workforce; job creation still weak.
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 7.7%; Panamax Index rose 2.2%; Supramax Index rose 7.2%; Handysize Index was up 3.6%.
Stockpiles of iron ore and steel are falling, so we have no prof of falling demand in China (jet). I still expect Chinese buyers returning to the market and propping rates.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 14.2%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 8.9%.
I would speculate that China resumed its imports pace and propped rates.
Very nervous and volatile week. Markets again on crossroad; to reiterate my view: I expect rate recovery in near term, if rates fail to rebound and if Chinese commodity demand doesn’t return soon I would be very worried.
Baltic dry index fell 6.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.4%; Panamax Index fell 13.8%; Supramax Index was down 8.4%; Handysize Index fell 5.4%.
Capsize Index started forming a bottom; Steel inventory falling; As I wrote last Monday I expect Chinese buyers returning to the market soon and substantial ramp up in iron ore imports.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 9.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 13.6%.
Rates rose on falling crude oil stocks and distillate demand from China…
Commodities imports stalling; Baltic Dry Index again collapsing; Equities sharply lower…
Baltic dry index fell 5.7% last week; Capesize Index was down 7.9%; Panamax Index rose 6.3%; Supramax Index was down 7.4%; Handysize Index was down 3.1%.
Apparently China has slowed down the rate of purchases here also. Despite falling stockpiles Chinese buying is weak which means rates are falling.