Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index fell 5.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 3.0%; Panamax Index fell 10.7%; Supramax Index was down 3.0%; Handysize Index rose 1.3%.
Huge drop in thermal coal stockpiles; Huge drop in steel inventory; Rising inventory of iron ore. Prices are strong. Monetary tightening still not affecting Chinese commodity demand much.
Baltic dry index fell 9.5% last week; Capesize Index was down 10.0%; Panamax Index fell 11.9%; Supramax Index was down 3.6%; Handysize Index was unchanged.
Oversupply across the board…
I have lost flair in making predictions. I even started to think that correct forecasting is impossible. Maybe it is better to look at forecasting only as to the extent “what if” exercise. That’s why this is the first strategy post this year.
I have to come to conclusion that the only relevant judgement on is made by market and this is the key in being a successful in this line of business. What is fair, what is right or what is logical are completely irrelevant questions in speculating. Fundamentals are most of the time only a peripheral factors affecting the prices; in fact fundamentals are major factor only in times of great excesses.
Now, lets get back to writing down my current mind setup.
Baltic dry index fell 4.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 0.7%; Panamax Index fell 7.4%; Supramax Index was down 5.7%; Handysize Index was up 0.9%.
Strong coal demand in China and increased iron ore demand ahead India monsoon season could support rates. Beside that the market is well supplied and nothing major happening.
John Tang, China strategist at UBS, explains why he foresees a significant slowdown in Chinese growth over the second quarter.
Baltic dry index fell 2.0% last week; Capesize Index was down 10.8%; Panamax Index fell 1.8%; Supramax Index rose 2.9%; Handysize Index was up 3.4%.
To repeat: Judging from increase in dry bulk rates and an end of raw materials stockpiling economic activity in China is accelerating after the holidays.
Baltic dry index rose 16.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 32.5%; Panamax Index rose 7.5%; Supramax Index increased 4.2%; Handysize Index was up 3.7%.
Judging from increase in dry bulk rates and an end of raw materials stockpiling economic activity in China is accelerating after the holidays. Iron ore, steel and thermal coal prices down on increased stockpiles.
Baltic dry index rose 8.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 8.5%; Panamax Index rose 9.4%; Supramax Index increased 5.9%; Handysize Index was up 2.3%.
Iron ore and steel prices fell on high inventory (iron ore inventory near record high; steel inventory record high). Thermal coal inventory data not released.
Baltic dry index fell 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 8.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.6%; Supramax Index rose 9.3%; Handysize Index was up 2.7%.
Iron ore and steel inventory at new all time high. Thermal coal inventory rising fast.
This could be a canary in a coal mine for Chinese economy…
Baltic dry index rose 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.2%; Panamax Index rose 23.7%; Supramax Index increased 11.9%; Handysize Index rose 3.2%.
Shipping rates are rising after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore unchanged at record high, iron ore price rising. Steel inventories are going vertical and moving towards record highs. Thermal coal stockpiles ticked upwards.
I would expect further gains in rates because of low level from which the after holiday recovery started. Overall stockpile data paints kind of worrying picture of Chinese economy.
Longer term – I expect that rates will be on average bellow break-even (2.200 on BDI) for next couple of years on oversupply of vessels.
he People’s Bank of China raised the reserve requirement ratio for domestic banks by 0.5% to curb inflation.
Baltic dry index rose 12.9% last week; Capesize Index was up 13.5%; Panamax Index rose 20.2%; Supramax Index increased 3.9%; Handysize Index rose 0.9%.
Shipping rates rose after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore, steel and coke are rising in-sync with their respected prices. Buyers probably stockpiling in fear of even higher prices.
I would expect further gains in rates; Still keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
POBC raised key one-year lending rate for 0.25% to 6.06%. Timing of the announcement came as a surprise to the markets, as the rise was expected further into the first quarter.
To repeat: Raising interest rates and stalling real-estate prices are a bad cocktail. I will cover China even more extensively next year, as big things could come from here.
Baltic dry index fell 8.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 5.0%; Panamax Index rose 0.8%; Supramax Index decreased 9.8%; Handysize Index fell 10.9%.
Stockpile data was not reported last week because Chinese holidays. Iron ore price fell 4%.
We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
Baltic dry index fell 17.0% last week; Capesize Index was down 12.1%; Panamax Index fell 19.0%; Supramax Index decreased 15.3%; Handysize Index fell 7.1%.
Iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports at all-time high, iron ore demand will be weaker because of lunar new year (February 3rd). All this looks quite negative for dry bulk rates.
Dry bulk companies news flow very negative with Korea line receivership and Excel maritime postponing $250 million debt offering.
We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.