Global Macro Perspectives
China trade balance was reported at USD 18.4 billion vs. USD 5.4 billion in December and USD 9.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 4.9 and 0.3 percent vs. 8.9% and 5.3% in March.
I’ve been quite busy on my day job in last weeks, so now when I finally have some spare time I will follow-up China macro data since the start of the year.
To sum up, Chinese authorities have started to loosen monetary policy after slowdown in manufacturing and slowdown of imports (especially imports of goods which are consumed in China).
China trade balance was reported at USD 14.5 billion vs. USD 17.8 billion in August and USD 16.3 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 17.1 and 20.9 percent vs. 24.5 and 30.2 percent y-o-y in June.
China trade balance was reported at USD 31.5 billion vs. USD 22.3 billion in June and USD 27.4 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 20.4 and 22.9 percent vs. 17.9 and 19.3 percent y-o-y in June.
Strong set of figures.
China trade balance was reported at USD 13.5 billion vs. USD 11.4 billion in April and USD 19.3 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 19.4 and 28.4 percent vs. 29.9 and 21.8 percent y-o-y in April.
Big miss, but we had large positive surprise in April.
China trade balance was reported at USD 11.4 billion vs. USD 0.1 billion in March and USD 3.2 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 29.9 and 21.8 percent vs. 35.8 and 27.3 percent y-o-y in March
Strong set of figures.
China trade balance was reported at USD 0.14 billion vs. USD -7.3 billion in February and USD -3.4 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 35.8 and 27.3 percent vs. 2.4% and 19.4% y-o-y in February
For Q1 2011, exports and imports rose by 26.5% y-o-y and 32.6% y-o-y, with the trade deficit atUS$1bn.
Better than consensus, but high commodity prices clearly kicking in.
China trade balance was reported at USD -7.3 billion vs. USD 6.45 billion in January and USD 4.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 2.4 and 19.4 percent vs. 37.7% and 51.0% y-o-y in January.
Large unexpected surprise, but something I hinted earlier in my dry bulk weeklies. Concerning deficit itself it’s probably result of seasonal effects (Lunar New Year) and POBC tightening measures. I expect some normalization in March, but nevertheless the market reaction could be violent in coming days because this is a game-changer, especially in relation to yuan appreciation calls.
POBC tightening to contain inflation will probably have to be relaxed or even reversed because Chinese government faces two alternatives: 1. higher growth & higher inflation vs. 2. lower growth & lower inflation. The outcome of this is pretty clear.
China trade balance was reported at USD 6.5 billion vs. USD 13.1 billion in December and USD 11.3 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 37.7 and 51.6 percent vs. 17.9% and 25.6% in December.
Trade balance shrunk on increased imports before holidays and on rising pressure from commodity prices.
China trade balance was reported at USD 13.1 billion vs. USD 22.9 billion in November and USD 20.8 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 17.9 and 25.6 percent vs. 34.9% and 37.7% in November.
Total accumulated surplus for 2010 was USD 185.6 billion vs. USD 198.2 in full year 2009.
Sharp decline in trade balance surplus and both export and import growth confirm what I already anticipated on freight rates. What is even worse there’s no recovery in freight rates in January (jet).
** China NDRC Property Price Index ** China Trade Balance; Export & Import Growth ** China Monetary Aggregates ** China New Loan Issuance ** Consumer & Producer Price Indexes ** China Retail Sales Growth ** China Fixed Assets Investment **
(For September 2010) China trade balance was reported at USD 16.9 billion vs. USD 20.0 billion in August. Export and import growth were running at 25.1 and 24.1 percent. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 121.4 billion vs. USD 136.6 billion for the same last year and full year 2009 USD 196 billion. Chinese economy at exact place […]
(For August 2010) China trade balance was reported at USD 20.0 billion vs. USD 28.7 billion in July. Export and import growth were running at 34.4 and 35.2 percent. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 104.5 billion vs. USD 123.7 billion for the same last year and full year 2009 USD 196 billion. Numbers are quite disappointing, […]
China trade balance was reported at USD 28.7 billion vs. USD 20.0 billion in June. Export and import growth were running at 38.1 and 22.7 percent. The imports are slowing down, I would say that will mean lower exports further down the road. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 84.5 billion vs. USD 108.0 billion for […]
China trade balance was reported at USD 20.0 billion vs. USD 19.5 billion in May. Export and import growth were running at 43.9 and 34.1 percent. The imports are slowing down, I would say that will mean lower exports further down the road. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 55.8 billion vs. USD 97.4 billion for […]