Global Macro Perspectives
Asian markets bounced on China industrial production figures. Apparently China’s factory output rose 19.2% in November vs. 18.2% consensus. Exports are running at -1.2% yoy, imports at +26.7% yoy. CPI at 0.6% yoy in November vs. -0.5% yoy in October. PPI rebounded from -5.8% in October to -2.1% in November YoY. New loans at Rmb295bn […]
A lot of economic announcements from China today. So, let’s start. China’s industrial production rose 16.1% in October from a year before following 13.9% rise in September. The export decline slowed to 13.8% in October (year-on-year). If we adjust for holidays, it was down only 9.1% . The trade surplus rose to 23.99 billion USD […]
hina GDP grew 8.9% in third quarter vs. 9% consensus. All risky assets headed lower on the news, U.S. dollar higher. Puzzled, makes no sense. Bloomberg explanation: China’s Economy Grows 8.9%, Fastest Pace in a Year.
The media focus is on stimulus, monetary expansion. Chinese officials have already addressed those issues, at least verbal. In my view the depressed exports; over capacity; real estate bubble; credit boom are big issues and I am little bit skeptic on can China ride out of this recession smoothly. Correction today in Asia on concern of stimulus withdrawal.
Same as the day before, yesterday we saw mostly “better than expected” data from the US. Most notably new home sales were up 9.6% in July. Durable goods orders came 4.9% higher in July vs. 3% consensus and -2.5% the month before. Better than expected orders were mostly result of US government “cash for clunkers” program from which, by the way, mostly benefited Japanese auto makers. Durable goods ex transportation came at 0.8% vs. 0.9% consensus and 2.5% the month before.
We have had some spectacular runs from the recent lows both in the equity arena and among commodities. As I am writing this introductory post markets are hitting new highs for the year. Common to these diverse markets is that we have seen little or no material improvement in underlying fundamentals only consolidation at initially depressed levels.