Global Macro Perspectives
China trade balance was reported at USD 18.4 billion vs. USD 5.4 billion in December and USD 9.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 4.9 and 0.3 percent vs. 8.9% and 5.3% in March.
I’ve been quite busy on my day job in last weeks, so now when I finally have some spare time I will follow-up China macro data since the start of the year.
To sum up, Chinese authorities have started to loosen monetary policy after slowdown in manufacturing and slowdown of imports (especially imports of goods which are consumed in China).
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 13.0% y-o-y in September vs. 14.0% consensus and 13.5% rise in August.
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 15.1% y-o-y in May vs. 15.5% consensus and 15.3% rise in April.
Chinese banks issued CNY 552 billion of new loans in May vs. CNY 740 billion in April and consensus of CNY 650 billion. New loan issuance January-May is 11.7% lower than in 2010.
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 15.3% y-o-y in April vs. 16.6% consensus and 16.6% rise in March.
Chinese banks issued CNY 740 billion of new loans in April vs. CNY 679.5 billion in March and consensus of CNY 700.0 billion. The government has not provided a target for this year, but inferring on Q1 numbers the pace of loan growth could be similar to last years pace.
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 16.6% y-o-y in March vs. 15.4% consensus and 15.7% rise in February.
Chinese banks issued CNY 679.5 billion of new loans in March vs. CNY 535.6 billion in February and consensus of CNY 600.0 billion. The government has not provided a target for this year, but inferring on Q1 numbers the pace of loan growth could be similar to last years pace.
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.2% y-o-y in January vs. 19.0% consensus and 19.7% rise in December.
Chinese banks issued CNY 1,040.0 billion of new loans in January vs. CNY 480.7 billion in December and consensus of CNY 1,200.0 billion. The government has not provided a target for this year, so we will have to wait for a couple months to gain an insight how high it could be this year.
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 19.7% YoY in December vs. 19.0% consensus and 19.5% rise in November.
Chinese banks issued CNY 480.8 billion of new loans in December vs. CNY 564.0 billion in November and consensus of CNY 360.0 billion. Total new loans for 2010 reached CNY 7.9 trillion vs. CNY 7.5 trillion annual target.
New loan issuance slowed down in December because banks tried to obey annual targets; Monetary expansion continues.
** China NDRC Property Price Index ** China Trade Balance; Export & Import Growth ** China Monetary Aggregates ** China New Loan Issuance ** Consumer & Producer Price Indexes ** China Retail Sales Growth ** China Fixed Assets Investment **
(For September 2010) The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 19.0% YoY in September vs. 18.9% consensus and 19.2% growth in August. Slight tick up in money supply growth. Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates China new loans rose CNY 595.5 billion in September vs. CNY 545.2 billion in August and consensus of CNY 500.0 billion. Total […]
(For August 2010) My impression from the August China macroeconomic data is that the Chinese government has speed up monetary expansion while keeping tight grip on real-estate and equity markets. The August speed up means that either the rate of expansion will slow down in the last quarter of 2010 or Chinese targets for this year will […]
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.6% YoY in July vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.5% growth in June. Chinese government reigning in on monetary expansion. Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates China new loans rose CNY 632.8 billion vs. CNY 603.4 billion in June and CNY 603.4 billion Chart 2. China New Loans China fixed asset investments […]
China new loan issuance for June was at 603 CNY billion. In May the issuance was at 639.4 CNY billion. Chart 1. China New Loans
All of China monetary aggregates rose in May: M0 was up 15.3%; M1 was up 29.9%; M2 was up 21.0%. New loan issuance was also strong (up 21.5% YoY). If they don’t tighten fast, they will miss the opportunity…and the bubble bursts in an ugly way. Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates Chart 2. China New Loans
As usual all the data from China cones at the same time. So, let’s start. In short: China trade balance for April was marginally positive, but in my opinion the China ability to run large trade surplussed is lost and will not return in short term. Implications are diverse, maybe most important the quantity of […]