Global Macro Perspectives
I don’t see any encouraging data for the dry bulk industry, we are probably years away from recovery.
Last week Baltic Dry Index rose 4.9%; Capesize Index was down 6.9%; Panamax Index rose 14.0%; Supramax Index was up 8.9%; Handysize Index rose 8.5%.
China steel and coal inventories edged up while their prices moved down. Iron ore inventory on the other hand moved down, while price showed some signs of recovery. Overall the demand in these markets seems weak.
Almost half a year passed since my last post. I have to say I miss my blogging, so one of my New Year decisions was start over, probably not with intensity as in the best days…
In the mean time we had a wild ride with equity and most of the other prices in China, but ultimately (concerning shipping) the result is that we are about where we were 6 months ago, only the dry bulk fleet now is even bigger.
It’s been a while a posted my last post. My day job has become really exhaustive and it’s quite difficult for me to find time to write. I hope I will manage to post at least a couple of posts per week in the future.
In the mean time all things China (including shipping) has deteriorated further.
Baltic dry index rose 2.7% last week; Capesize Index was up 3.0%; Panamax Index fell 6.1%; Supramax Index was up 6.6%; Handysize Index rose 2.0%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports mostly flat, price moved lower. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price moved lower. Thermal coal inventory at all-time high, price moved lower.
Baltic dry index rose 0.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 1.2%; Panamax Index fell 3.6%; Supramax Index was down 0.4%; Handysize Index rose 3.7%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports mostly flat, price moved lower on risk-off. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price moved marginally lower. Thermal coal inventory rose, price remained unchanged.
Baltic dry index rose 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 5.1%; Panamax Index fell 12.1%; Supramax Index was up 1.5%; Handysize Index rose 2.2%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports and price mostly flat. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory rose a bit, price unchanged.
Baltic dry index rose 9.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.5%; Panamax Index rose 28.4%; Supramax Index was up 9.0%; Handysize Index rose 4.1%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports fell in the recent weeks; price pretty much unchanged. Steel stockpiles fell from all time-high, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory fell further, price moved a bit higher lower.
I didn’t post for a while, but nothing material happened in the shipping markets during that time.
Baltic dry index rose 6.9% last week; Capesize Index was down 1.4%; Panamax Index rose 5.3%; Supramax Index was up 16.0%; Handysize Index rose 7.3%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports close to all-time high; price pretty much unchanged. Steel stockpiles spiked upwards while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory fell from a all-time high reached this year, price moved lower.
Baltic dry index rose 0.3% last week; Capesize Index was also up 0.3%; Panamax Index fell 1.9%; Supramax Index was down 0.6%; Handysize Index rose 3.6%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports close to all-time high; price pretty much unchanged. Steel stockpiles spiked upwards while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory moved to all-time high, price moved lower.
Baltic dry index fell 10.9% last week and has reaching all-time low; Capesize Index was down 2.0%; Panamax Index fell 15.0%; Supramax Index was down 12.5%; Handysize Index fell 10.3%.
Baltic dry index fell 18.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 9.8%; Panamax Index fell 19.3%; Supramax Index was down 16.9%; Handysize Index fell 9.0%.
The consensus with which I agree is that the Euro zone is heading into a recession. While the economic activity has somewhat improved over the last months in the U.S. I remain doubtful whether the U.S. can escape the recession when Europe enters one. The data coming from China doesn’t (jet) point to a hard landing. For the time being it looks like that the Chinese government is in control. The measures to contain inflation and raising real-estate prices are successful, while in the same time China is has taken early steps to increase domestic consumption and re-balance the economy. One should not disregard and keep close watch on soft data coming from China especially in real estate and commodity related industries which are not reflected in the official data and could be pointing to serious issues.
Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, talks about the growth outlook for China and the impact on the global economy. (Source: Bloomberg)
Baltic dry index fell 21.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 25.2%; Panamax Index fell 17.8%; Supramax Index was down 12.7%; Handysize Index fell 4.7%.
Baltic dry index fell 1.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 3.4%; Panamax Index rose 3.6%; Supramax Index was down 3.0%; Handysize Index fell 2.3%.
Baltic dry index rose 3.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 8.4%; Panamax Index rose 0.7%; Supramax Index was down 7.9%; Handysize Index fell 3.4%.