Global Macro Perspectives
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May was reported at -0.37 vs. revised April reading of -0.56. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at -0.19.
CFNAI is pointing to mild economic growth.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 429.000 vs. 415.000 consensus and last week revised (up 6.000) reading of 420.000.
HSBC/Markit China PMI for June fell from 51.6 to 50.1. This means industrial production growth is slowing down to something like 13%.
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FED acknowledged the recent slowdown in economic growth but the committee believes slowdown is only temporary. Committee expects that the pace of recovery will pick up and inflation rate subside to levels at or below those consistent with the FED’s dual mandate.
Asset purchases will be completed this month.
No indications of any new policies (jet).
Baltic dry index rose 0.4% last week; Capesize Index was up 5.1%; Panamax Index fell 0.7%; Supramax Index was down 2.2%; Handysize Index fell 2.0%.
No major changes in both price or inventory of iron ore, steel and coal.
U.S. housing starts in March rose 3.5% to 560.000 vs. revised (18.000 higher) 541.000 April reading. Consensus was at 545.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are down 3.4%.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 414.000 vs. 420.000 consensus and last week revised (up 3.000) reading of 430.000.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in May. Consensus was at 0.2%, April reading was at 0.0%. On year level industrial production is up 5.9%.
Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for June came out at -7.8 vs. 12.0 consensus and prior reading of 11.9.
Ugly looking chart.
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U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% in May vs. 0.1% consensus and April reading of 0.4%. On year level CPI inflation is running at 3.6%.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May was reported at 90.9 vs. consensus of 90.5 and prior reading of 91.2.
U.S. retail sales were reported down 0.2% in May vs. -0.3% consensus. April reading was at 0.3% (revised from 0.5%). On year level retail sales are up 7.8%.
U.S. producer price index rose 0.2% in May vs. 0.1% consensus. April reading was at 0.8%. On year level PPI is up 7.0%.