U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – July 4, 2011
U.S. railroads originated 284,562 carloads, down 0.1% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 4.5% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -3.3%.
Global Macro Perspectives
U.S. railroads originated 284,562 carloads, down 0.1% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 4.5% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was -3.3%.
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 3.6%; Panamax Index fell 9.9%; Supramax Index was down 1.2%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.
Large increase in coal stockpiles, no major changes in other categories.
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Official (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics) China PMI fell form 52.0 to 50.9. Consensus was at 51.5.
Demand is strengthening, crude oil stocks declined, distillates mostly unchanged. Supply/demand balance is tight.
Release of strategic reserve will have, in my view, relatively small effect on supply/demand balance, so the price weakness is probably short-term.
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Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 58.5 vs. 61.0 consensus and 61.7 reading for May (revised from 60.8).
Weakening…
Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city was unchanged in April; On year level 10 city index is down 3.1%.
U.S. personal income rose 0.3% in May vs. 0.4% consensus and revised (down 0.1%) 0.3% rise in April. On y-o-y level personal income is up 4.2%.
Baltic dry index rose 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 8.2%; Panamax Index fell 7.8%; Supramax Index was up 0.2%; Handysize Index fell 1.8%.
Iron ore inventory high, price moved lower; Both steel inventory and price moved lower; In coal both price and inventory moved up. Historically speaking coal inventory is low.
U.S. railroads originated 294,310 carloads, up 3.3% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 1.6% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was 1.4%.
Almost no growth compared with 2010.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.9%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 7.6%.
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U.S. new home sales fell 2.1% to 319.000 SAAR; Consensus was at 305.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised upward 3.000) was at 326.000 SAAR.