Global Macro Perspectives
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June was reported at -0.46 vs. revised May reading of -0.55. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at -0.6.
CFNAI is pointing to zero economic growth, when index 3-month moving average moves bellow -0.7 there is “an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun”. Very close…
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 3.6%; Panamax Index fell 9.9%; Supramax Index was down 1.2%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.
Iron ore inventory at all time high, price unchanged. Steel inventory declining, price stable. Massive increase in coal stockpiles, price also stable.
*** The Big Picture: Bernanke speaks ***
*** The Big Picture: More or not more ***
*** self-evident: The Ron & Ben show ***
*** Gavyn Davies: Bernanke and the divided Fed ***
*** FT Alphaville: On the matter of misvalued Chinese land ***
*** FT Alphaville: Subprime selling off, again ***
*** FT Alphaville: Moody’s puts the US on review for possible downgrade ***
*** FT Alphaville: Risk on… wait, never mind ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: China: the taxman boometh ***
*** JESSE’S CAFÉ AMÉRICAIN: Silver Dealer Inventory Continues to Spiral to New Lows at the Comex – Pax Goldmana ***
*** Capital Chronicle: Monkeys with guns: high frequency trading ***
*** The Big Picture: Market focusing on 1 sentence ***
*** FT Alphaville: FOMC minutes from the June 21-22 meeting ***
*** FT Alphaville: No, the ECB can’t prop up Italy ***
*** FT Alphaville: Italy… from a high yield perspective ***
*** FT Alphaville: Are USDA crop stats unreliable? ***
*** FT Alphaville: A change in Pimco strategy? ***
*** WSJ Market Beat: Swap Spreads Hit One-Year Peak ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: The Euro and the ES ***
*** Pragmatic Capitalism: Who bought all those bonds? ***
*** Pragmatic Capitalism: The economic debacle in 4 simple charts ***
*** The Money Illusion: A million millionaires ***
*** Wired: Kinect Hackers Are Changing the Future of Robotics ***
*** FT Alphaville: The Italian panic — rationalisation del giorno ***
*** FT Alphaville: Doing the right thing in the eurozone ***
*** FT Alphaville: Is fiscal union the only answer? ***
*** FT Alphaville: How quickly things change, Italy edition ***
*** FT Alphaville: Hoping history doesn’t repeat itself, US GDP edition ***
*** FT Alphaville: If (when) China slows down ***
*** The Big Picture: Gold Cycle, Perodicity and Bollinger Bands ***
*** The Big Picture: QOTD: Jean-Claude Trichet Is Keyser Söze ***
*** Bloomberg: Profits Climb to 51-Year Mean as S&P 500 P/E at Crisis Level ***
*** The Economist: Rooms with a view ***
*** The Wall Street Journal: Google Makes Facebook Look Socially Awkward ***
*** The American Dream: China Wants To Construct A 50 Square Mile Self-Sustaining City South Of Boise, Idaho ***
*** BBC: Why do Americans die younger than Britons? ***
*** FT Alphaville: What are gold fund outflows really saying? ***
*** FT Alphaville: China’s stagflation question ***
*** FT Alphaville: An awful June employment report: payrolls up 18,000… ***
*** The Big Picture: The rug isn’t big enough ***
*** The Big Picture: Organizational Charts In Major Tech ***
I’m on vacation, so the posting will be sporadic in next two weeks.
Crude oil and distillates stocks recorded small declines. Supply/demand balance is tight.
Release of strategic reserve will have, in my view, relatively small effect on supply/demand balance, so the price weakness is probably short-term.
*** The Big Picture: Lakshman Achuthan: Leading Indicators, Slowing Jobs Data ***
*** The Big Picture: Reporting Season Farce ***
*** The Big Picture: NPR: 150,000 Foreclosed Lawns to Mow ***
*** FT Alphaville: #ECBCollateral ***
*** FT Alphaville: Chart du jour, US long-term unemployment edition ***
*** FT Alphaville: Bahrain: the “most improved” sovereign ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Fund flows: steady as she goes ***
*** Macro Man: A Tale of Two Sh1tties ***
*** Bloomberg: Paulson’s Main Fund Lost 11% on Sino-Forest ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Photo Essay On Impermanence ***
*** FT Alphaville: Default as a state of normalcy ***
*** FT Alphaville: Trichet on rating requirement for Portugal: whatever, don’t worry about it ***
*** FT Alphaville: All going to plan. Argentina’s plan that is ***
*** FT Alphaville: Germany isn’t about exports anymore ***
*** The Financial Times: Sweden eyes Chinese lessons in schools ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: Afghan iron ore: the Indian connection ***
*** The Big Picture:Insider Buying? Headlines vs S&P 500 Index ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: PO TW: Internet Abbreviations ***
*** Calculated Risk: Goldman’s Hatzius forecasts 125,000 payroll jobs added in June ***
*** The Wall Street Journal: Hedge Funds Lagged S&P 500 In June ***
*** The Wall Street Journal: Latest Twist in the Bonds, Drugs and Porn Litigation ***
*** The Telegraph: Monkey steals camera to snap himself ***
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 418.000 vs. 420.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 432.000.
ADP Employment rose 157,000 in June vs. revised (down 2,000) gain of 36,000 in May.
Large upside surprise, I wonder whether it will be confirmed by non-farm payrolls.
*** Macro Man: Come the Resolution ***
*** FT Alphaville: China hikes interest rates by 25bps ***
*** FT Alphaville: European money market funds are hemorrhaging ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: China: Temasek sale unnerves investors ***
*** Foreign Policy: Burnley: The new Mumbai? ***
*** Quora: What would make sense for Apple to use its $51+ billion in cash for a strategic acquisition? ***
*** FT Alphaville: And the winning SPR bids are… ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: China debt: Moody’s warning ***
*** The Telegraph: Unilever’s Polman hits out at City’s short-term culture ***
*** guardian.co.uk: The ‘cold rush’: industrialisation in the Arctic – interactive ***
*** FT Alphaville: The French proposal, c’est un défaut sélectif, says S&P ***
*** FT Alphaville: Barclays and the VZZ implosion ***
*** FT Alphaville: Goldman’s on top of the Dodd-Frank talks ***
*** Macro Man: U-Turn or U-bend ***
*** The Big Picture: Happy Birthday, America, but it’s time to grow up. ***
*** The Big Picture: Is Crude Oil About to Collapse? ***
*** The Big Picture: Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (7/1/11) ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: China: swing factor for oil market ***