Global Macro Perspectives
China Consumer Price Index was up 3.4% in April, vs. 3.4% consensus and 3.6% March reading. Food inflation rose fell from 7.5 to 7.0%.
China Producer Price Index fell to -0.7% from -0.3% in April. Consensus was at -.5%.
The chart looks outright bad.
China trade balance was reported at USD 18.4 billion vs. USD 5.4 billion in December and USD 9.9 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 4.9 and 0.3 percent vs. 8.9% and 5.3% in March.
Massive fall in gas drilling in recent months coupled with large increase in oil drilling.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.6%.
Baltic dry index rose 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 5.1%; Panamax Index fell 12.1%; Supramax Index was up 1.5%; Handysize Index rose 2.2%.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports and price mostly flat. Steel stockpiles fell further, but remained at elevated levels while price remained flat. Thermal coal inventory rose a bit, price unchanged.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending April 27, 2012 was reported unchanged y-o-y. Prior reading was at 0.5%.
U.S. railroads originated 283,080 carloads, down 4.2% compared with the same week in 2011 and down 3.3% in relation to 5-year average. Week over week change was +0.3%.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 115.000 in April; Consensus was at 160.000; March reading was an increase of 154.000 (revised up 34.000). Unemployment was reported at 8.1% vs. prior reading and consensus of also 8.2%.
Private payrolls were up 130.000 vs. 165.000 consensus and 166.000 reading in March (revised up 45.000).
The oil price is holding up quite well despite weaker demand and higher stockpiles. The reason for that are tightness in the brent market (which reflects in other markets via. arbitrage) and geopolitical risks (mostly related to Iran nuclear program).
Working gas in storage rose 28 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 29 Bcf.
Storage level is massive 810 Bcf higher than same time year ago and way above 5-year average.
Abundance of supply.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 365.000 vs. 379.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 392.000.
Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 40,559 in April vs. 37,880 in March.
ADP Employment rose 119,000 in April vs. revised (down 8,000) gain of 201,000 in March.
As expected, a non-event.
Statement wording mostly unchanged, federal funds rates at exceptionally low levels at least through late 2014.
A full statement with changes tracked bellow.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 5.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell 0.6%.
Same as with dry bulk…nothing changed.