China Retail Sales Up 17.0% In August
China retail sales rose 17.0% y-o-y in August vs. 17.2% July reading. Consensus was at 17.0%.
Industrial Production In China Rose 13.5% In August
Industrial production in China rose 13.5% y-o-y in August; July reading was at 14.0%. Consensus was at 13.7%.
China August CPI Inflation At 6.2%; PPI Inflation At 7.3%
China Consumer Price Index was up 6.2% in August, vs. 6.2% consensus and 6.5% July reading. Food inflation moderated from 14.8% in July to 13.4% in August.
China Producer Price Index was up 7.3% vs. 7.2% consensus and 7.5% July reading.
Judging from recent data it is possible that inflation has peaked for this year.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – September 9, 2011
Working gas in storage rose 64 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was also at 64 Bcf.
Storage level is 139 Bcf lower than same time year ago and bellow 5-year average.
Tanker Weekly – September 5, 2011
Both indexes were unchanged last week.
Dry Bulk Weekly – September 5, 2011
Baltic dry index rose 12.9% last week; Capesize Index was up 26.8%; Panamax Index fell 1.3%; Supramax Index was down 0.6%; Handysize Index rose 0.4%.
My feeling is that the rate increases are mostly sentiment driven and not backed by supply and demand fundamentals.
Iron ore inventory close to all time high, price edging up; Steel inventory and price stable; Coal inventory and price also stable.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – September 2, 2011
Working gas in storage rose 55 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 60 Bcf.
Storage level is 145 Bcf lower than same time year ago and bellow 5-year average.
August Nonfarm Payrolls Unchanged; Private Payrolls Up 17.000; Unemployment Rate At 9.1%
Nonfarm payrolls were unchanged in August; Consensus was at 60.000; July reading was an increase of 85.000 (revised down 32.000). The unemployment was reported at 9.1% vs. prior reading and consensus of 9.1%.
Private payrolls were up 17.000 vs. 95.000 consensus and 156.000 reading in July (revised up 2.000).
Large negative surprise and a confirmation of economic slowdown.
Monthly Strategy – September 2011
Not much has changed from August. The leading economic indicator are not pointing to any king of recovery from recent weakness.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 407.000; Down 12.000
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 407.000 vs. 410.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 421.000.
August China Official PMI At 50.9; HSBC/Markit China PMI At 49.9
Official (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics) China PMI rose form 50.7 to 50.9; Consensus was at 51.0.
HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 59.3 to 49.9.
August Chicago Purchasing Managers Index At 56.5
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 56.5. Consensus was at 53.3, prior reading at 58.8.
August Challenger Job-Cuts At 51,114
Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 51,114 in August vs. 66,414 in July.
ADP Employment Rose 91,000 In August
ADP Employment rose 91,000 in August vs. revised (down 5,000) gain of 109,000 in July.
FOMC Minutes – August 30, 2011
Looks like we have some eager FOMC members, so I suspect that we will have a serious discussion on QE 3 during the next FOMC meeting which will be held on 20th and 21st September.