Global Macro Perspectives
*** Macro Man: On The Therapist’s Couch ***
*** FT Alphaville: S&P downgrades Italy ***
*** FT Alphaville: Siemens in knots ***
*** The Big Picture: How Rare: S&P Dividend Yields vs Treasuries ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Why I Continue to Never Short AAPL ***
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, discusses the European debt crisis, investment strategy and the global economy. He speaks with Erik Schatzker at the Bloomberg Markets 50 Summit in New York.
*** FT Alphaville: Breaking on FedWire… ***
*** FT Alphaville: Chinese decoupling, meet Chinese stagflation ***
*** Jesse’s Café Américain: A Closer Look at the Gold Continuation Triangle, and the Coming Breakout to 2100 ***
*** npr: U.S. Skating On Thin Ice ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Very Interesting NASDAQ 100 Analog ***
Housing Market Index for September was reported at 14, down from 15 in August. Consensus was at 15.
I haven’t take a look at this for half a year. Still looking extremely weak.
Baltic dry index fell 3.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 8.0%; Panamax Index rose 3.0%; Supramax Index was up 2.7%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 0.4%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell -1.7%.
U.S. railroads originated 278,382 carloads, down 0.3% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 6.4% in relation to 5-year average. Week over week change was -8.2% (labor day).
September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading was reported at 57.8 vs. 57.0 consensus and 55.7 August reading.
Working gas in storage rose 87 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 82 Bcf.
Storage level is 155 Bcf lower than same time year ago and bellow 5-year average.
On the supply side we had large crude oil draw in the last two weeks because hurricanes in the gulf. Demand anemic. I still believe that the macro data will be the main factor driving the price of oil. Overall I expect volatile trading with no clear trend.
Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for June came out at -8.8 vs. -4.0 consensus and prior reading of -7.7.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.2% in August. Consensus was at 0.0%, July reading was at 0.9%. On year level industrial production is up 3.3%.
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.4% in August vs. 0.2% consensus and July reading of 0.5%. On year level CPI inflation is running at 3.8%.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 428.000 vs. 411.000 consensus and last week revised (up 6.000) reading of 417.000.
It’s all about global macro picture now and that doesn’t look promising.
U.S. railroads originated 303,260 carloads, down 0.6% compared with the same week in 2010 and right at the 5-year average. Week over week change was +1.1%.
Nothing pointing to recession here.