Global Macro Perspectives
In May, U.S. construction spending fell 0.2% MoM vs. -0.5% consensus and 2.7% rise in April. On a year level we are at -8.0%. Economic recovery without construction recovering is not the real sustainable recovery. Chart 1. U.S. Construction Spending
MBA mortgage applications rose 8.8% for week ending June 25, the prior reading was a decrease of 5.9%. The refinancing index gained 12.6% and is responsible for a composite rise. Purchasing index fell 3.3%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite rose 0.7% in April; S&P/Case-Shiller 20 HPI composite rose 0.8% in April. Complete surprise, but it will not affect nobody’s expectations as the indexes are lagging three month averages. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
New home sales fell 33.0% in May to 300.000, the consensus was at 400.000, prior reading was at 504.000. The lowest reading since 1963. The first home-buyer tax credit expiry is a reason for a this kind of drop, the effect was already seen with cash for clunkers program. A disastrous report. Chart 1. New Home Sales Source: Blytic.com
Existing home sales fell 2.2% to 5.66 million SAAR. Consensus was at 6.2 million. A big miss. Total housing inventory is flat at 8.3 months cover. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales
U.S. housing starts were reported at 593.000 vs. revised 659.00 April reading. The consensus was at 648.000. Building permits in the same period fell 5.9% to 574.000. Bad report. Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Chart 2. U.S. Building Permits
MBA mortgage applications rose 17.7% for week ending June 11 on back of a 21.2% refinancing surge, the prior reading was a decrease of 12.2%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
HMI came out at 17 vs. 22 in May. It is expected result of first home-buyer tax credit expiration. Nevertheless the U.S. housing is in a downward slope threatening the financial sector. All index components were down. Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
MBA mortgage applications fell 12.2% for week ending June 4, the prior reading was an increase of 0.9%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
New home sales rose 14.8% in April to 504.000, the consensus was at 425.000, prior reading was at 411.000. The first home-buyer tax credit program expiration again distorted the reading. Chart 1. New Home Sales Source: Blytic.com
10 city composite fell -0.4% and 20 composite fell 0.5% in February. Keeping in mind that this is 3 month rolling average. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
Existing home sales rose 7.9% to 5.77 million SAAR. Consensus was at 5.6 million. Again, the first home buyer tax credit expiring. Supply jumped 11.5% to 8.4 months cover. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales
MBA mortgage applications fell 1.5% for week ending May 14, the prior reading was an increase of 3.9%. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
U.S. housing starts were reported at 672.000 vs. 626.00 March reading. The consensus was at 650.000. Building permits in the same period fell 11.5% to 606.000. Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Chart 2. U.S. Building Permits
Pending home sales index rose 5.3% in March. Again first home-buyer tax credit effect… Chart 1. Pending Home Sales Index