Global Macro Perspectives
Construction spending is a contrast to the ISM Manufacturing. Needless to say that we cannot talk about economic recovery without construction spending. In March, U.S. construction spending rose 0.2% MoM. On a year level we are at -12.3%. Chart 1. U.S. Construction Spending
MBA mortgage applications fell 2.9% for week ending 16 April, the prior reading was an increase of 13.6%. Large surge in purchase index (+7.4%) was more than offset by falling refinance index (-8.8%). Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
10 city composite fell -0.6% and 20 composite fell 0.9% in February. Keeping in mind that this is 3 month rolling average. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
New home sales rose 26.9% in February to 411.000, the consensus was at 330.000, prior reading was at 308.000. The first home-buyer tax credit program expiration again distorted the reading. Chart 1. New Home Sales Source: Blytic.com
Existing home sales rose 6.8% in March and reached seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million units vs. 5.25 million units consensus and 5.02 prior reading. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales Source: Blytic.com
MBA mortgage applications rose 13.6% for week ending 16 April, the week before reading was at -9.6%. The first home-buyer tax credit program is approaching its end… Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
U.S. housing starts were reported at 626.000 vs. revised 616.00 March reading (revised from 575.000???). The consensus was at 610.000. Building permits in the same period rose 7.5% to 685.000. You can look the data from two standpoints: 1. The housing industry is recovering; or 2. They are adding additional supply to already oversupplied market. […]
HMI came out at 19 vs. 15 in March. The gain was fueled by present condition component and by traffic of perspective buyers; future expectations lagged. The tax credit expires with the end of the April, we will see what happens then… Chart 1. NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
MBA mortgage applications fell 9.6% for week ending 9 April, the week before reading was at -11%. The increase came probably due to FHA increasing mortgage insurance premiums. Bad data readings for housing continue. Chart 1. MBA Mortgage Applications
Rates for 30-year loans have risen 27 basins points (due to end of FED MBS buying program). As a result MBA Refinance Index fell 16.9%. Chart 1. MBA Composite; Purchase And Refinancing Index
Pending home sales index rose 8.2% in February. This is the single positive data point on U.S. housing in couple of months. Chart 1. Pending Home Sales Index
Both 10 city and 20 composites rose 0.3% in January. Keeping in mind that this is 3 month rolling average. Chart 1. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 10 Chart 2. S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20
New home sales fell -0.3% in February to 308.000, consensus was at 315.000. The disappointing news on U.S. housing continue… Chart 1. New Home Sales
Existing home sales fell 0.6% to 5.02 million SAAR. Consensus was at 5.0 million. Chart 1. Existing Home Sales
U.S. housing starts came out at 575.000 vs. 565.000 consensus and 591.000 in January. Building permits in the same period fell 1.6% to 612.000. The weather certainly played a role here, but nevertheless the data coming out on housing isn’t good. Chart 1. U.S. Housing Starts Chart 2. U.S. Building Permits