July ISM Manufacturing Index At 50.9
ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 50.9 vs. prior reading of 55.3 and consensus of 54.5.
Large negative surprise; a culmination of deteriorating economic data.
Archive for the ‘U.S. Economic Data’ Category
U.S. GDP Growth in Q2 2011 At 1.3%
U.S. GDP growth for Q2 was reported at 1.3%; consensus was at 1.9%. Q1 2011 reading was revised +0.4% (initial reading was at 1.8%).
Large negative surprise. This proves that FY growth consensus is way too high.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 398.000; Down 24.000
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 398.000 vs. 425.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 422.000.
Four week moving average declining.
U.S. Durable Goods New Orders Fell 2.1% In June
Durable goods new orders fell 2.1% in June vs. 0.3% consensus and 1.9% rise in May.
S&P/Case-Shiller 10 City Composite HPI Rose 0.1% In May
Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city rose 0.1% in May; On year level 10 city index is down 3.6%.
June Chicago Fed National Activity Index At -0.46
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June was reported at -0.46 vs. revised May reading of -0.55. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at -0.6.
CFNAI is pointing to zero economic growth, when index 3-month moving average moves bellow -0.7 there is “an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun”. Very close…
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 418.000; Down 14.000
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 418.000 vs. 420.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 432.000.
ADP Employment Rose 157,000 In June
ADP Employment rose 157,000 in June vs. revised (down 2,000) gain of 36,000 in May.
Large upside surprise, I wonder whether it will be confirmed by non-farm payrolls.
June Conference Board Consumer Confidence At 58.5
Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 58.5 vs. 61.0 consensus and 61.7 reading for May (revised from 60.8).
Weakening…
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price 10 Index Unchanged In April
Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city was unchanged in April; On year level 10 city index is down 3.1%.
U.S. May Personal Income Rose 0.3%; U.S. Consumer Spending Remained Unchanged
U.S. personal income rose 0.3% in May vs. 0.4% consensus and revised (down 0.1%) 0.3% rise in April. On y-o-y level personal income is up 4.2%.
U.S. New Home Sales Rose 2.1% In May
U.S. new home sales fell 2.1% to 319.000 SAAR; Consensus was at 305.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised upward 3.000) was at 326.000 SAAR.
May Chicago Fed National Activity Index At -0.37
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May was reported at -0.37 vs. revised April reading of -0.56. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at -0.19.
CFNAI is pointing to mild economic growth.
FOMC Statement – June 22, 2011
FED acknowledged the recent slowdown in economic growth but the committee believes slowdown is only temporary. Committee expects that the pace of recovery will pick up and inflation rate subside to levels at or below those consistent with the FED’s dual mandate.
Asset purchases will be completed this month.
No indications of any new policies (jet).
Number Of U.S. Housing Starts Rose 3.5% In May; Number Of Building Permits Issued Rose 8.7%
U.S. housing starts in March rose 3.5% to 560.000 vs. revised (18.000 higher) 541.000 April reading. Consensus was at 545.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are down 3.4%.