Global Macro Perspectives
(For August 2010) U.S. personal income rose 0.5% in August vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.2% July reading. On y-o-y level the personal income is up 3.3%. Chart 1. U.S. Personal Income U.S. consumer spending also rose 0.4% in August vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.4% July reading. On y-o-y level the consumer spending is up 2.7%. Chart […]
(For September 2010) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 60.4. The consensus was at 55.5, prior reading at 56.7. First manufacturing survey above consensus and pointing to expansion. Richmond FED Manufacturing, Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index all point to lower ISM manufacturing while Chicago pints to higher ISM […]
U.S. GDP Q2 growth was revised from 1.6% to 1.7%. The consensus was at 1.6%, Q1 reading was at 2.7%. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP & Percent Change
(For The Week Ending September 25, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 453.000. The consensus was at 460.000, last week revised (up 9.000) reading was at 469.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For August 2010) The American Trucking Associations seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 2.7% in August. The largest month-to-month decrease since March 2009. From the Press Release: ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that August’s data highlights that the economy, while still growing, is slowing. “We fully anticipate sluggish economic growth for the remainder […]
(For September 2010) Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey came out today at -2. The consensus was at 6.0, prior reading at 6. Another manufacturing survey bellow consensus and again pointing to contraction. Richmond FED Manufacturing, Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index all point to lower ISM manufacturing. Richmond FED Manufacturing, Dallas Fed Manufacturing […]
(For September 2010) Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 48.5 vs. 52.1 consensus and 53.5 reading for August. Big miss; markets as usual not valuing negative news and readings. Chart 1. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For September 2010) Dallas FED Manufacturing Activity was reported at -17.7. The consensus was at -6.0, prior reading at -13.5. Again bellow consensus and again pointing to contraction. Dallas Fed Manufacturing, Empire State Manufacturing and Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index all point to lower ISM manufacturing. Dallas Fed Manufacturing and Empire State Manufacturing both deteriorated in […]
(For August 2010) Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August was reported at -0.53 vs. July revised reading of -0.11. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.42. When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has […]
(For The Week Ending September 17, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending September 17, 2010 was reported down 8.7%. Prior reading was at -9.3% (revised -0.1% lower). This is it for this leg down. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For August 2010) Durable good orders fell -1.3% in August vs. -1.0% consensus and +0.7% decrease in July (revised upwards from +0.3%). Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Transportation taken out the figure was a increase of 2.0% vs. -2.8% fall in July (revised upwards from -3.8%). The consensus was at +1.0%. Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders […]
(For August 2010) If you were (same as I) wondering why market moved up it was because of this. Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% in August. The consensus was at 0.1%, prior revised reading was at 0.1%. On year level LEI is up 6.9% vs. 7.2% in July. Digging little deeper we can […]
(For The Week Ending September 18, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 465.000. The consensus was at 450.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 453.000. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For July 2010) Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index fell 3.1% in July and it is now running at -7.2% YoY. Chart 1. Moody’s/Real National Commercial Property Index
(For The Week Ending September 10, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending September 10, 2010 was reported down 9.2%. Prior reading was at -10.1%. Out of the recession territory. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index