Global Macro Perspectives
(For September 2010) U.S. producer price index rose 0.4% in September vs. 0.1% consensus. August reading was also at 0.4%. On year level PPI is up 4.0%. Chart 1. U.S. Producer Price Index Food & energy taken out U.S. producer price index rose 0.1% in September. The consensus and prior reading were also at 0.1%. On year level core PPI […]
(For The Week Ending October 9, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 462.000. The consensus was at 445.000, last week revised (up 4.000) reading was at 449.000. It’s not improving after all… Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index fell 0.5% in September after falling 1.0% in August. Press release. The decline indicates four consecutive months of limited to no increases in over the road movement of produce, raw materials, goods-in-process and finished goods since the PCI peaked in May 2010. Moreover, the PCI forecasts GDP growth in […]
(For The Week Ending October 1, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending October 1, 2010 was reported down 7.0%. Prior reading was at -7.8%.. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
Nonfarm payrolls fell 95.000 in September. The consensus was at -8.000, August reading was revised (-3.000) decrease of 57.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.6% vs. prior reading of 9.6% and consensus of 9.7%. Private payrolls were up 64.000 vs. 85.000 consensus and 67.000 reading in August. Average weekly hours worked for private employees remain […]
(For The Week Ending October 2, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 445.000. The consensus was at 455.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 456.000. Next weeks will be crucial, if the improvements continue this could be quite positive for U.S. economy. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For September 2010) ADP Employment fell 39,000 in September vs. revised (up 20,000) gain of 10,000 in August. Consensus was at +20,000. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday (rule of thumb) will be negative, probably missing -54.000 consensus. Unemployment will rise. Chart 1. ADP Employment
(For September 2010) Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 37,151 in September vs. 34,768 in August. Chart 1. Challenger Job-Cut Report
(For September 2010) ISM Non- Manufacturing Index was reported at 53.2 vs. 52.0 consensus and 51.5 reading in July. Chart 1. ISM Non- Manufacturing Index
(For August 2010) U.S. factory orders fell 0.5% in August. The consensus was at -0.3%, prior reading was at 0.1%. Factory shipments fell 0.6%, July reading was at 1.2%. We have gap in the making between orders and shipments. Chart 1. U.S. Manufacturers New Orders & Shipments
(For September 2010) U.S. total motor vehicle sales for September rose 0.27 million units to 11.73 million SAAR. Chart 1. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Market share of domestic producers fell 0.4% to 75.2%. Chart 2. U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales Domestic vs. Foreign Market Share
(For The Week Ending September 24, 2010) ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending September 24, 2010 was reported down 7.8%. Prior reading was at -8.7%.. Chart 1. ECRI Weekly Leading Index
(For August 2010) U.S. construction spending rose 0.4% m-o-m in August vs. -0.4% consensus and revised (down -0.4%) 1.4% fall in June. On year level we are at -10.0%. Chart 1. U.S. Construction Spending
(For September 2010) University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment for September final reading came out at 68.2 vs. 66.6 reported two weeks ago; 67.0 consensus and 68.9 August reading. Chart 1. University of Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For September 2010) ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 54.4 vs. prior reading of 56.3 and consensus of 54.5. The pace of growth in industrial activity is weakening. Chart 1. ISM vs. Philadelphia vs. Regional Manufacturing Surveys