Global Macro Perspectives
And the view from the man himself. The Washington Post: What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability. By Ben S. Bernanke Thursday, November 4, 2010 Two years have passed since the worst financial crisis since the 1930s dealt a body blow to the world economy. Working with policymakers at […]
$600 million over 8 months. More than consensus, but less what was expected before WSJ story. The pace of asset buying on lower bound of expectations. FED Press Release. Slow recovery confirmed. Core inflation measures moved lower. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in […]
(For September 2010) U.S. factory orders rose 2.1% in September. The consensus was at 1.8%, prior reading was at 0.0% (revised from -0.5%). Factory shipments rose 0.4%, August reading was at -0.2%. Chart 1. U.S. Manufacturers New Orders & Shipments
(For October 2010) ISM Non- Manufacturing Index was reported at 54.3 vs. 53.5 consensus and 53.2 reading in September. Chart 1. ISM Non- Manufacturing Index
(For October 2010) ADP Employment rose 43,000 in October vs. revised (up 37,000) loss of 2,000 in September. Consensus was at +20,000. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday (rule of thumb) could be close to the consensus of 60.000. Chart 1. ADP Employment
(For October 2010) Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 37,986 in October vs. 37,151 in September. Chart 1. Challenger Job-Cut Report
(For September 2010) U.S. personal income fell 0.1% in September vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.5% August reading. On y-o-y level the personal income is up 3.1%. Chart 1. U.S. Personal Income U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2% in September vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% August reading. On y-o-y level the consumer spending is up 3.7%. Chart 2. […]
(For September 2010) U.S. construction spending rose 0.5% m-o-m in September vs. -0.5% consensus and revised (down -0.6%) 0.2% fall in August. On year level we are at -10.4%. Revisions are so big that one can’t rely on this data. Chart 1. U.S. Construction Spending
(For October 2010) ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 56.9 vs. prior reading of 54.4 and consensus of 54.5. Manufacturing growth improved in October. Chart 1. ISM Manufacturing vs. Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For October 2010) October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading was reported at 67.7 vs. 68.0 consensus and 67.9 prior October reading. Unchanged level of confidence. Chart 1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment vs. Conference Board Consumer Confidence
(For October 2010) Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 60.6. The consensus was at 58.0, prior reading at 60.4. Regional manufacturing surveys signal improvements in October. Using rule of thumb I would say that industrial production in October will be unchanged. Chart 1. ISM vs. Chicago PMI and Regional Manufacturing Surveys
(For Q3 2010) U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was reported at 2.0%, right at consensus. Q2 reading was at +1.7%. This is a big argument against new massive round of QE. Chart 1. U.S. Real GDP Growth
(For The Week Ending October 23, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 434.000. The consensus was at 455.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 455.000. Again moving lover, we will see if it holds. Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
(For September 2010) Durable good orders rose 3.3% in September vs. 2.0% consensus and -1.0% decrease in August (revised upwards from -1.3%). Chart 1. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Transportation taken out the figure was a decrease of 0.8% vs. 1.9% rise in August (revised upwards from 1.9%). The consensus was at +0.5%. Chart 2. U.S. Durable Goods Orders Ex. […]
(For October 2010) Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey came out today at 5. The consensus was at 1.0, prior reading at -2. We could probably see improved ISM manufacturing reading for October. Chart 1. ISM vs. Richmond Fed and Regional Manufacturing Surveys