FOMC Minutes – November 23, 2010
Only thing interesting are revisions to the committee’s forecasts for growth, unemployment, and inflation in the next three years.
Archive for the ‘U.S. Economic Data’ Category
U.S. GDP Growth in Q3 2010 Revised to 2.5%
U.S. GDP growth for Q3 was revised from 2.0% to 2.5%; consensus was at 2.4%. Q2 reading was at +1.7%.
Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index Rose 4.3% In September
(For September 2010) Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index rose 4.3% in September and it is now running at +0.3% y-o-y. The relatively large swings in the index in recent months are due in part to the uncertain macroeconomic environment and the low number of repeat-sale transactions. In the first nine months of 2010, four months have measured […]
Chicago Fed National Activity Index For October At -0.28
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October was reported at -0.38 vs. revised September reading of -0.52. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.46.
When the CFNAI three month moving average value moves below –0.70 following a period of economic expansion, there is an increasing likelihoodthat a recession has begun.
Another indicator pointing to mild growth and still indecisive on whether it will turn lower.
Conference Board Leading Economic Index For October Rose 0.5%
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.5% in October. The consensus was at 0.6%, prior revised reading (from +0.3%) was at 0.5%. On year level LEI is up 6.0% vs. 6.8% in August.
This is uber-Keynesian indicator as 43% of its value is derived from monetary factors (M2 and interest rate spread)…
November Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index At 22.5
Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index rose to 22.5. The consensus was at 5.6, prior reading at 1.0.
Large positive surprise and big contradiction to Empire State Manufacturing…
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 439.000; Up 2.000
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 439.000. The consensus was at 441.000, last week revised (down 3.000) reading was at 437.000.
Improvement, but small and appears it has stalled…
U.S. Consumer Price Index Rose 0.2% In October
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% in October vs. 0.3% consensus and September reading of 0.1%. On year level CPI inflation is running at 1.2%…
U.S. Industrial Production Flat In October
U.S. industrial production remained unchanged in October. The consensus was at 0.3%, September reading at -0.2%. On year level industrial production is up 5.4%…
U.S. Producer Price Index Rose 0.4% In October
U.S. producer price index rose 0.4% in October vs. 0.8% consensus. September reading was also at 0.4%. On year level PPI is up 4.3%…
November Empire State Manufacturing Survey At -11.14
Empire State Manufacturing Survey for November came out at -11.14 vs. 14.0 consensus and 15.73 prior reading.
Big ugly miss. Downward path resumed…
U.S. Retail Sales Rose 1.2% In October
U.S. retail sales rose 1.2% in October. The consensus was at 0.7%, September reading (revised up 0.1%) was at +0.7%. On year level retail sales are up 7.1%. Gains concentrated in auto sales; not reassuring report…
October Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 151.000; Unemployment Rate At 9.6%
Nonfarm payrolls rose 151.000 in October. The consensus was at 60.000, September reading was a (revised +54.000) decrease of 57.000. The unemployment was reported at 9.6% vs. prior reading of 9.6% and consensus of 9.6%.
Private payrolls were up 159.000 vs. 80.000 consensus and 107.000 reading in October (revised +43.000).
Average weekly hours worked for private employees rose to 34.3.
Much better than consensus; slight improvement overall.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims At 457.000; Up 20.000
(For The Week Ending October 30, 2010) Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 457.000. The consensus was at 442.000, last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 437.000. Again, the decrease did not get confirmed by next week reading. DOL again miscalculated the seasonal effects (Columbus day). Chart 1. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims
Monster Employment Index At 136
(For October 2010) Monster Employment Index fell to 136 in October; September reading was at 138. Monster Employment Index is a gauge for online job demand; so no changes here. Charts 1. Monster Employment Index