Global Macro Perspectives
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December was reported at 0.03 vs. revised November reading of -0.4. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.22.
CFNAI is pointing to mild economic growth..
Durable goods new orders fell 2.5% in December vs. 1.5% consensus and -0.1% revised increase in November (revised upwards from -1.3%)
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 454.000 vs. 405.000 consensus; last week revised (down 1.000) reading was at 403.000.
Again big spike upwards.
New: Formulation that despite rise in commodity prices longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and; Since Mr. Hoenig in no longer a voting member all FOMC members voted in favor of FOMC monetary policy action.
U.S. new home sales rose 17.5% to 329.000 SAAR; Consensus was at 300.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised downward 10.000) was at 280.000 SAAR.
Month of supplies fell from 8.4 down to 6.9 months. Backlog of unsold new homes is at 191.000, lowest since February 1968.
As I wrote yesterday, months of supply is still above pre-crisis levels, but the absolute level of unsold new homes is so low that small pickup in new home sales could lead to demand outweighing supply.
If inflow of foreclosed homes to the market does not increase dramatically the possibility of further large-scale decreases of home prices is not high. I will monitor situation closely as home prices are crucial for financial sector health.
MBA mortgage applications fell 12.9%; Prior reading was an increase of 5.0%; On year level MBA Basic Index is down 13.9%.
Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey was reported today at 18.0. Prior reading was at 25.0, consensus was at 22.0.
To repeat: Industrial production will continue to slowly expand in January.
Conference Board consumer confidence came out at 60.6 vs. 54.3 consensus and 52.5 reading for December.
Large positive surprise.
Seasonly adjusted S&P/Case-Shiller HPI 10 city composite fell 0.4% In November; On year level 10 city index is down 0.4%.
Moody’s/REAL National Commercial Property Index rose 0.6% in November and it is now running at +2.8% y-o-y.
Levitating around bottom.
Sales of existing homes in U.S. rose 12.3% to 5.28 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 4.87 million.
Philadelphia FED General Business Conditions Index fell to 19.3. The consensus was at 20.8, prior revised (from 24.3) reading was at 20.8.
Industrial production will continue to slowly expand in January.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 404.000 vs. 420.000 consensus; last week revised (down 1.000) reading was at 441.000.
Lot of volatility, but 4 week moving average has decreased a bit.
Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for January came out at 11.92 vs. 12.5 consensus and revised prior reading of 9.89 (revised from 10.57).
Slight improvement, looks like industrial production will continue expanding.
December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading was reported at 72.7 vs. 75.5 consensus and 74.5 December reading.
Down slightly