Global Macro Perspectives
ADP Employment rose 217,000 in February vs. revised (up 2,000) gain of 189,000 in January.
This was widely off the mark in recent months, but if we judge just on this nonfarm payrolls on Friday (rule of thumb) could be slightly lower than 193.000 consensus.
Challenger’s count of layoff announcements was reported at 50,702 in February vs. 38,519 in January.
Slightly up…
U.S. construction spending fell 0.7% in January vs. 0.8% consensus and 1.6% fall (revised from 2.5% fall) in November. On year level we are at -5.9%.
ISM Manufacturing Index was reported at 61.4 vs. prior reading of 60.8 and consensus of 61.0.
Highest reading in more than 25 years. Improved ISM Manufacturing Index suggest strong(er) industrial production growth in the U.S.
Pending home sales fell rose 2.0% in January vs. revised (down from +2.0%) fall of 3.2% in December. On year level, the index is down 1.6%.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index was reported at 71.2. Consensus was at 67.5, prior reading at 68.8.
Highest reading since 1988. Prepare for a blowout ISM Manufacturing.
U.S. personal income rose 1.0% in January vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.4% rise in December. On y-o-y level personal income is up 4.6%.
U.S. consumer spending rose 0.2% in January vs. 0.4% consensus and 0.5% December reading (revised from 0.7%). On y-o-y level consumer spending is up 4.0%.
February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment second reading was reported at 77.5 vs. 75.1 preliminary reading and consensus. January reading was at 74.2 .
U.S. GDP growth for Q4 was revised from 3.2% to 2.8%; consensus was at 3.3%. Q2 reading was at +2.6%.
Initial pre-release consensus was at 3.5%…we are now almost 1% lower…
U.S. new home sales fell 12.6% to 284.000 SAAR; Consensus was at 310.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised downward 4.000) was at 325.000 SAAR.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January was reported at -0.16 vs. revised December reading of 0.18. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average was at -0.1.
CFNAI is pointing to mild economic growth.
Durable goods new orders rose 2.7% in January vs. 2.8% consensus and -0.4% revised fall in December (revised upwards from -2.5%).
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 391.000 vs. 405.000 consensus; last week revised (up 3.000) reading was at 413.000.
Lot of noise in data;. Four weeks moving average slowly moving lower.
Sales of existing homes in U.S. rose 2.7% to 5.36 million units SAAR. Consensus was at 5.22 million.
Richmond FED Manufacturing Survey was reported today at 25.0. Prior reading was at 18.0, consensus was also at 18.0.
To repeat: Looks like industrial production will continue expanding.