Global Macro Perspectives
U.S. housing starts in March rose 7.2% to 549.000 vs. revised (33.000 higher) 512.000 February reading. The consensus was at 520.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are down 13.4%.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.8% in March. The consensus was at 0.6%, February (up 0.2%) reading was at 0.1%. On year level industrial production is up 5.9%.
Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for April came out at 21.7 vs. 17.0 consensus and prior reading of 17.5.
Positive surprise.
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.5% in March vs. 0.5% consensus and February reading of also 0.5%. On year level CPI inflation is running at 2.7%.
Year-on year inflation is rising, but nowhere near alarming rates (jet).
U.S. producer price index rose 0.7% in March vs. 1.0% consensus. February reading was at 1.6%. On year level PPI is up 5.7%.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 412.000 vs. 380.000 consensus and last week revised (up 3.000) reading of 385.000.
Four weeks mostly unchanged in the last 6 readings.
U.S. retail sales were reported up 0.4% in March vs. o.5% consensus. February reading was at +1.1% (revised from +1.1%). On year level retail sales are up 7.1%.
U.S. trade balance for February was reported at $-45.8 billion vs. consensus of $-44.0 billion and January reading of $-46.3 billion.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March was reported at 91.9 vs. consensus of 95.0 and prior reading of 94.5.
Higher commodity prices kicking-in…
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 382.000 vs. 385.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 392.000.
Four weeks moving mostly unchanged in the last 5 readings.
Inflation is transitory (whatever that means), no sign of removing “extended period” formulation, asset purchasing program to be completed.
ECRI Weekly Leading Index for week ending March 18, 2011 was reported up 6.5% y-o-y. Prior reading was at 7.1%.
Topping out…
March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading was reported at 67.5 vs. 68.0 consensus, 68.2 prior reading and 77.5 February reading.
U.S. GDP growth for Q4 was revised from 2.8% to 3.1%; consensus was at 3.0%. Q2 reading was at +2.6%.
Durable goods new orders fell 0.9% in February vs. 1.2% consensus and 3.6% revised rise in January (revised upwards from +2.7%).