Dry Bulk Weekly – April 11, 2011
Baltic dry index fell 9.5% last week; Capesize Index was down 10.0%; Panamax Index fell 11.9%; Supramax Index was down 3.6%; Handysize Index was unchanged.
Oversupply across the board…
Archive for the ‘Shipping’ Category
Tanker Weekly – April 11, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 5.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was down 1.8%.
Back to the same old story…oversupply…
Dry Bulk Weekly – April 4, 2011
Baltic dry index fell 4.1% last week; Capesize Index was down 0.7%; Panamax Index fell 7.4%; Supramax Index was down 5.7%; Handysize Index was up 0.9%.
Strong coal demand in China and increased iron ore demand ahead India monsoon season could support rates. Beside that the market is well supplied and nothing major happening.
Tanker Weekly – April 4, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.7%.
Activity increased on Libyan oil substitution, rated steady despite more demand.
Dry Bulk Weekly – March 21, 2011
Baltic dry index fell 2.0% last week; Capesize Index was down 10.8%; Panamax Index fell 1.8%; Supramax Index rose 2.9%; Handysize Index was up 3.4%.
To repeat: Judging from increase in dry bulk rates and an end of raw materials stockpiling economic activity in China is accelerating after the holidays.
Tanker Weekly – March 21, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.1%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.8%.
Markets adapted well to the new setup (ex. Libyan oil and with increased Japanese product demand), risk is on the downside.
Dry Bulk Weekly – March 14, 2011
Baltic dry index rose 16.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 32.5%; Panamax Index rose 7.5%; Supramax Index increased 4.2%; Handysize Index was up 3.7%.
Judging from increase in dry bulk rates and an end of raw materials stockpiling economic activity in China is accelerating after the holidays. Iron ore, steel and thermal coal prices down on increased stockpiles.
Tanker Weekly – March 13, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 1.9%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was unchanged.
Japan earthquake effects: I seems that Japanese crude oil demand will initially fall because one fifth of Japanese refinery capacity is offline, but subsequently will rise fast because only possible substitution to nuclear electricity generation (one fourth off-line and years needed to bring it back on-line) is gas and oil-fired generation. Product demand (residual fuel oil and diesel fuel especially) will rise fast in coming days.
To sum up, near term positive for product tankers, negative for crude oil carriers. Longer term positive for both. Positive for LNG carriers.
Dry Bulk Weekly – March 7, 2011
Baltic dry index rose 8.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 8.5%; Panamax Index rose 9.4%; Supramax Index increased 5.9%; Handysize Index was up 2.3%.
Iron ore and steel prices fell on high inventory (iron ore inventory near record high; steel inventory record high). Thermal coal inventory data not released.
Tanker Weekly – March 6, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 20.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 12.7%.
As I wrote earlier civil war in Libya is driving rates up. Under the assumption European imports of Libyan crude will be replaced by West Africa crude and West African crude exported to Far East substituted with Saudi crude the distance to which crude is transported could be actually reduced. So, when the tankers reposition according to the new transport setup, what remains is only uncertainty driving the markets.
Dry Bulk Weekly – February 28, 2011
Baltic dry index fell 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 8.8%; Panamax Index fell 9.6%; Supramax Index rose 9.3%; Handysize Index was up 2.7%.
Iron ore and steel inventory at new all time high. Thermal coal inventory rising fast.
This could be a canary in a coal mine for Chinese economy…
Tanker Weekly – February 26, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 11.8%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 11.7%.
As with everything happening this week this was also caused by Libya unrest/civil war. Libya crude oil was primarily exported to nearby markets, so drop in Libya production will have to be substituted from producing countries which are more distant. This caused a rise in shipping rates which will probably continue.
Dry Bulk Weekly – February 21, 2011
Baltic dry index rose 10.4% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.2%; Panamax Index rose 23.7%; Supramax Index increased 11.9%; Handysize Index rose 3.2%.
Shipping rates are rising after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore unchanged at record high, iron ore price rising. Steel inventories are going vertical and moving towards record highs. Thermal coal stockpiles ticked upwards.
I would expect further gains in rates because of low level from which the after holiday recovery started. Overall stockpile data paints kind of worrying picture of Chinese economy.
Longer term – I expect that rates will be on average bellow break-even (2.200 on BDI) for next couple of years on oversupply of vessels.
Tanker Weekly – February 19, 2011
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 10.5%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index was up 3.6%.
The demand is somewhat stronger, but my guess is that supply will emerge and rates will remain range bound.
Dry Bulk Weekly – February 14, 2011
Baltic dry index rose 12.9% last week; Capesize Index was up 13.5%; Panamax Index rose 20.2%; Supramax Index increased 3.9%; Handysize Index rose 0.9%.
Shipping rates rose after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore, steel and coke are rising in-sync with their respected prices. Buyers probably stockpiling in fear of even higher prices.
I would expect further gains in rates; Still keeping close watch on Egypt developments.