Japan Update – Things Getting Worse?
Japanese official reports are quite scarce, so this is my inferring based on what is not said rather than on what is said.
Archive for the ‘Markets’ Category
FOMC Statement – March 15, 2011
The wording on strength of economic recovery is upgraded (“economic recovery is on a firmer footing”). Some improvement in labor market recognized.
Energy and commodities rising prices effect on inflation downplayed.
Japan Update
Things got much worse during the night…two additional reactors exploded and radiation got out to atmosphere.
Help Japan Earthquake And Tsunami Victims
My thoughts are with the earthquake and tsunami victims in Japan. If you would like to help, you can make a donation via. the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) web site.
Spain Downgraded By Moody’s
Moody’s downgraded Spain’s sovereign credit together with the Spanish bank recapitalization fund rating to Aa2 from Aa1. Oultook negative.
Not much happening with Spanish spreads after the downgrade.
WSJ: QE 2 Will Be Completed As Planed
FED pre-announcement via. WSJ…
Trichet Paves The Way For A Interest Rise Next Month
Bloomberg:
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB may raise interest rates next month to fight accelerating inflation pressures.
An “increase of interest rates in the next meeting is possible,” told reporters in Frankfurt today after the centralbank left its key rate at a record low of 1 percent. “Strong vigilance is warranted,” Trichet said, adding that any increase would not necessarily be the start of a “series” of moves.
Importance Of Libya For World Oil Production
Libya in unrest/civil war is having a mayor impact on the oil markets. Crude oil (brent) has yesterday reached post crisis high of 108.7 USD/bbl. The outcome of the Libya crisis is absolutely uncertain and together with other regional instability will be a strong factor for rising oil prices.
High oil price does not bode well with economic growth, so this could be large negative factor for economic growth and inflation.
According to OPEC January data Libya produces approximately 1.6 million barrels of crude per day. This is 3.9% of total OPEC production and 1.8% of world total demand.
U.S. Natural Gas Weekly – February 18, 2011
Working gas in storage fell 233 Bcf from previous week. The consensus was at 235 Bcf.
Storage level is 114 Bcf lower than same time year ago.
Heating season is nearing its end, the market is well supplied, so no fundamental reasons for natural gas price recovery.
Reason for price falling in recent week were milder weather forecasts. Technically natural gas is oversold, s I would not exclude price rebound despite unfavorable storage numbers.
FOMC Minutes – February 16, 2011
Did not have time to review this yesterday… Most important – economic projections were raised up. Theme remains unchanged: inflate.
Morning Reading – Wednesday, February 16, 2011
*** FT Alphaville: Raging bulls ***
*** FT Alphaville: Emerging resistance ***
*** FT Alphaville: Inflation Chartology ***
*** FT BeyondBRICs: PE unfazed by China property “bubble” ***
*** The Big Picture: Trading Rules, Aphorisms & Books ***
*** The Big Picture: Labor Costs vs Consumer Prices 1950-2010 ***
*** Insider Monkey: David Tepper Betting On Airlines. ***
*** The Economist: The return of structural unemployment concerns ***
*** Urgent Speed: Why Ten Million Dollar IPOs Matter ***
*** Fortune: Turnaround CEO smackdown ***
Hosni Mubarak Resigns
Bloomberg: Hosni Mubarak Resignation (Text of Statement)
Hosni Mubarak stepped down as president of Egypt and handed power to the military, bowing to the demands of protesters who have occupied central Cairo for the past three weeks demanding an end to his 30-year rule.
FOMC Statement – January 26, 2011
New: Formulation that despite rise in commodity prices longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable and; Since Mr. Hoenig in no longer a voting member all FOMC members voted in favor of FOMC monetary policy action.
U.S. Freight Carloads Weekly – January 15, 2011
U.S. railroads originated 285,108 carloads, up 20.4% compared with the same week in 2010 and down 1.1% compared with 5-year average. Week over week change was 20.4%.
Significant improvement.
Baltic Dry Index At 1693, Down 4.3%
Baltic Dry Index fell 4.3% today while Queensland floods worsened.