China’s Central Bank Again Raised Reserve Requirements
he People’s Bank of China raised the reserve requirement ratio for domestic banks by 0.5% to curb inflation.
Archive for the ‘China’ Category
Monetary Expansion In China Continues In January, But At A Slower Pace
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.2% y-o-y in January vs. 19.0% consensus and 19.7% rise in December.
Chinese banks issued CNY 1,040.0 billion of new loans in January vs. CNY 480.7 billion in December and consensus of CNY 1,200.0 billion. The government has not provided a target for this year, so we will have to wait for a couple months to gain an insight how high it could be this year.
China CPI Inflation In January At 4.9%; PPI Inflation At 6.6%
China Consumer Price Index was up 4.6% in January, vs. 5.4% consensus and 4.6% December reading . Lower food price inflation has pushed the number lower. The CPI basket was changed (less food in it, more housing), but as far I can tell this didn’t change the reading much.
This is quite positive, I expect the monetary tightening will continue, but without the need for aggressive actions.
China Producer Price Index was up 6.6% vs. 6.2% consensus and 5.9% December reading.
Dry Bulk Weekly – February 14, 2011
Baltic dry index rose 12.9% last week; Capesize Index was up 13.5%; Panamax Index rose 20.2%; Supramax Index increased 3.9%; Handysize Index rose 0.9%.
Shipping rates rose after the lunar new year as Chinese buyers returned to the markets
Stockpiles of iron ore, steel and coke are rising in-sync with their respected prices. Buyers probably stockpiling in fear of even higher prices.
I would expect further gains in rates; Still keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
Chinese Trade Balance Surplus Unexpectedly Declined In January
China trade balance was reported at USD 6.5 billion vs. USD 13.1 billion in December and USD 11.3 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 37.7 and 51.6 percent vs. 17.9% and 25.6% in December.
Trade balance shrunk on increased imports before holidays and on rising pressure from commodity prices.
Chinese Central Bank Surprisingly Raised 1-Year Benchmark Interest Rate To 6.06%
POBC raised key one-year lending rate for 0.25% to 6.06%. Timing of the announcement came as a surprise to the markets, as the rise was expected further into the first quarter.
To repeat: Raising interest rates and stalling real-estate prices are a bad cocktail. I will cover China even more extensively next year, as big things could come from here.
Dry Bulk Weekly – February 7, 2011
Baltic dry index fell 8.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 5.0%; Panamax Index rose 0.8%; Supramax Index decreased 9.8%; Handysize Index fell 10.9%.
Stockpile data was not reported last week because Chinese holidays. Iron ore price fell 4%.
We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
China Official PMI Fell To 52.6 In January; HSBC/Markit China PMI Rose To 54.5
Official (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics) China PMI fell form 53.9 to 52.6; HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 54.4 to 54.5.
Looks like industrial production growth in January will remain at present levels.
Dry Bulk Weekly – January 31, 2011
Baltic dry index fell 17.0% last week; Capesize Index was down 12.1%; Panamax Index fell 19.0%; Supramax Index decreased 15.3%; Handysize Index fell 7.1%.
Iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports at all-time high, iron ore demand will be weaker because of lunar new year (February 3rd). All this looks quite negative for dry bulk rates.
Dry bulk companies news flow very negative with Korea line receivership and Excel maritime postponing $250 million debt offering.
We could see some improvement after the lunar new year; Keeping close watch on Egypt developments.
Dry Bulk Weekly – January 24, 2011
Baltic dry index fell 4.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 2.4%; Panamax Index fell 14.2%; Supramax Index rose 2.4%; Handysize Index was up 1.6%.
Iron ore stockpiles in Chinese ports at all-time high, iron ore demand will be weaker because of lunar new year (February 3rd). All this looks quite negative for dry bulk rates.
China Retail Sales Up 19.1% In December
China retail sales rose 19.1% in December vs. 18.7% consensus and also 18.7% growth in November.
China CPI Inflation In December At 4.6%; PPI Inflation At 5.9%
China Consumer Price Index was up 4.6% in August, right at the consensus. November reading was at 5.1%. Most significant contribution to inflation deceleration came from lower food price inflation.
China Producer Price Index was up 5.9% vs. 5.7% consensus and 6.1% November reading.
CPI number looks kind of tweaked, nevertheless the inflation should again pick up in January on increased fuel prices and seasonal effects (Lunar New Year is latter this year).
China Q4 GDP Growth At 9.8%
China third quarter GDP growth was reported at 9.8%, slightly better than third quarter growth rate of 9.6%. This time upside came from primary sector (agriculture, forestry…) and services rather than as usually from manufacturing.
In 2010 Chinese economy grew 10.3%,
Still quite high growth rates, I expect China will try to keep it’s economy growing at near 10% growth rate this year also. Biggest headwind will be inflation and with inflation connected interest rate increases. Looking at Q4 data Chinese growth looks quite resilient.
China NDRC Property Index Rose 6.4% In December
Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China rose 6.4% y-o-y in December compared with 7.7% reading in November and 7.0% consensus. On monthly level the prices were up 0.3% same as in November.
Adding to China worries, it’s positive that the growth in real-estate value is moderating, but the risk (and fear) is that the prices could start falling.
Dry Bulk Weekly – January 17, 2011
Baltic dry index fell 5.3% last week; Capesize Index was down 14.5%; Panamax Index fell 0.7%; Supramax Index rose 3.9%; Handysize Index fell 0.6%.
Iron ore stockpiles have risen a bit despite Queensland floods, that’s kind of worrying because despite Queensland supply disruptions there is no apparent physical lack of iron ore. On the other hand it seems Baltic dry index is forming a bottom at 1.500 level.