Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index fell 2.5% last week; Capesize Index was down 4.6%; Panamax Index fell 2.8%; Supramax Index was up 0.4%; Handysize Index fell 0.5%.
Large decrease in thermal coal stockpiles; steel stockpiles also fell, iron ore stockpiles unchanged. Prices strong. No sign of any China slowdown.
hina fixed asset investments were up 25.4% y-o-y in April; March reading was at 25.0%. Consensus was at 24.9%.
China retail sales rose 17.1% y-o-y in April vs. 17.4% March reading. Consensus was at 17.6%.
Industrial production in China was up 13.4% y-o-y in April; March reading was at 14.8%. The consensus was at 14.6%.
Somewhat soft.
China Consumer Price Index was up 5.3% in April, vs. 5.2% consensus and 5.4% March reading. Food CPI edged lower from 11.7% y-o-y to 11.5% y-o-y; Non-food CPI remained at 2.7% y-o-y.
China Producer Price Index was up 6.8% vs. 7.0% consensus and 7.3% March reading. Declining which is a good sign for the CPI.
Overall, PBOC efforts to contain inflation are catching up.
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 15.3% y-o-y in April vs. 16.6% consensus and 16.6% rise in March.
Chinese banks issued CNY 740 billion of new loans in April vs. CNY 679.5 billion in March and consensus of CNY 700.0 billion. The government has not provided a target for this year, but inferring on Q1 numbers the pace of loan growth could be similar to last years pace.
China trade balance was reported at USD 11.4 billion vs. USD 0.1 billion in March and USD 3.2 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 29.9 and 21.8 percent vs. 35.8 and 27.3 percent y-o-y in March
Strong set of figures.
Baltic dry index rose 5.6% last week; Capesize Index was up 0.1%; Panamax Index rose 22.0%; Supramax Index was down 0.3%; Handysize Index fell 0.6%.
Commodities stockpiles were not released, but judging by the price action I suspect no major changes.
Baltic dry index rose 1.2% last week; Capesize Index was up 1.6%; Panamax Index rose 5.3%; Supramax Index was down 0.8%; Handysize Index fell 0.6%.
Huge drop in thermal coal stockpiles; Huge drop in steel inventory; Iron ore inventory unchanged. Prices are strong. Monetary tightening still not affecting Chinese commodity demand much.
Official (China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics) China PMI fell form 53.4 to 52.9. Consensus was at 53.9.
Weakening, but that’s nothing new.
Baltic dry index fell 5.8% last week; Capesize Index was down 3.0%; Panamax Index fell 10.7%; Supramax Index was down 3.0%; Handysize Index rose 1.3%.
Huge drop in thermal coal stockpiles; Huge drop in steel inventory; Rising inventory of iron ore. Prices are strong. Monetary tightening still not affecting Chinese commodity demand much.
The rest of the charts I didn’t have time to post…
China Consumer Price Index was up 5.4% in March, vs. 5.2% consensus and 4.9% February reading. Both food and non-food CPI’s were higher, at 11.7% y-o-y and 2.7% y-o-y, respectively vs. 11.0% y-o-y and 2.3% y-o-y in February. Services CPI also rose to 4.2% y-o-y vs. 3.8% y-o-y in February, pointing to slight (for the time being) wage-driven inflation pressure.
China Producer Price Index was up 7.3% vs. 7.2% consensus and 7.2% February reading. This suggests rising CPI.
More tightening ahead.
China first quarter GDP growth was reported at 9.7%, vs. fourth quarter 2011 growth rate of 9.8%. Consensus was at 9.4%.
The slowdown most notably occurred in secondary industries (mining, constructionand manufacturing) on the back of monetary tightening.
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 16.6% y-o-y in March vs. 15.4% consensus and 15.7% rise in February.
Chinese banks issued CNY 679.5 billion of new loans in March vs. CNY 535.6 billion in February and consensus of CNY 600.0 billion. The government has not provided a target for this year, but inferring on Q1 numbers the pace of loan growth could be similar to last years pace.