Global Macro Perspectives
(For August 2010) China trade balance was reported at USD 20.0 billion vs. USD 28.7 billion in July. Export and import growth were running at 34.4 and 35.2 percent. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 104.5 billion vs. USD 123.7 billion for the same last year and full year 2009 USD 196 billion. Numbers are quite disappointing, […]
(For August 2010) Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China rose 9.3% in August compared with 10.3% reading in July and 10.0% consensus. Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price YoY
Baltic dry index rose 6.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 14.1%; Panamax Index rose 4.8%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes lost 5.5% and 1.2% respectively. China steel prices ticking up, bringing some demand to the shipping markets. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components […]
(For August 2010) Official China PMI rose from 51.5 to 51.7; The HSBC/Markit PMI rose from 49.4 to 51.9. Reading bellow 50 means contraction. Equity markets cheerful on that despite absolute level flirting with contraction. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI / HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI
Baltic dry index rose 11.7% last week; Capesize Index gained 11.5%; Panamax Index rose 7.9%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 13.4% and 5.3% respectively. Chinese steel mills resumed with iron ore purchases. Indian ore exports have effectively stopped because of export tariffs / rain season / illegal mining inquiries so Indian ore is being substituted with Australian and Brazilian. With the twist of speculative euphoria and unwarranted […]
Baltic dry index rose 21.6% last week; Capesize Index gained 46.3%; Panamax Index rose 11.0%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 4.7% and 4.1% respectively. Chinese steel mills resumed with iron ore purchases. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components
China retail sales rose 17.9% in July vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.3% growth in June. Everything slowing down… Chart 1. China Retail Sales Growth
Industrial production growth in China fell to 13.4% in July from 13.7% in June. The consensus was also at 13.4%. Slowing down… Chart 1. China Industrial Production
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 17.6% YoY in July vs. 18.5% consensus and 18.5% growth in June. Chinese government reigning in on monetary expansion. Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates China new loans rose CNY 632.8 billion vs. CNY 603.4 billion in June and CNY 603.4 billion Chart 2. China New Loans China fixed asset investments […]
China Consumer Price Index was up 3.3% in July, right at the consensus. June reading was at 2.9%. China Producer Price Index was up 4.8% in July vs. 6.0% consensus and 6.4% June reading. All of the consumer price increase came from food. PPI eased a bit on weaker dollar and lower commodity prices. Consumer inflation […]
China trade balance was reported at USD 28.7 billion vs. USD 20.0 billion in June. Export and import growth were running at 38.1 and 22.7 percent. The imports are slowing down, I would say that will mean lower exports further down the road. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 84.5 billion vs. USD 108.0 billion for […]
Housing and commercial real-estate prices in China are up 10.3% YoY in July compared with of 11.4% YoY rise in June. It’s slowing down…down 0.1% MoM. Chart 1. China NDRC Property Price Index – House Price YoY
Baltic dry index rose 3.2% last week; Capesize Index gained 14.2%; Panamax Index fell -1.2%; Handysizes and Supramax Indexes gained -3.6% and -1.6% respectively. Positive recent developments: Russia grain export ban – increasing ton-mile relation; India imposing additional iron ore export tariffs – also increasing ton-mile relation; improved China steel prices and reduced China steel stockpiles. Negative recent developments: All time […]
Marc Faber softened his stance on China. Bloomberg TV Interview:
The official China PMI fell from 52.1 to 51.2; The HSBC/Markit PMI fell from 50.4 to 49.4. Reading bellow 50 means contraction. Asian markets up today… Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI / HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI