Global Macro Perspectives
Baltic dry index rose 2.4% last week; Capesize Index was up 6.6%; Panamax Index fell 6.2%; Supramax Index was down 1.9%; Handysize Index was down 3.8%. Capesizes still leading on iron ore demand from China. Strange that other vessel classes and not following… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart […]
(For September 2010) The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 19.0% YoY in September vs. 18.9% consensus and 19.2% growth in August. Slight tick up in money supply growth. Chart 1. China Monetary Aggregates China new loans rose CNY 595.5 billion in September vs. CNY 545.2 billion in August and consensus of CNY 500.0 billion. Total […]
(For September 2010) China trade balance was reported at USD 16.9 billion vs. USD 20.0 billion in August. Export and import growth were running at 25.1 and 24.1 percent. The accumulated surplus is now at USD 121.4 billion vs. USD 136.6 billion for the same last year and full year 2009 USD 196 billion. Chinese economy at exact place […]
(For August 2010) China Vehicle sales were at 1.32 million; up 16.1% y-o-y and up 6.3% m-o-m. Sales are 23.8% down from March high. China domestic consumption is not rising fast enough to enable China shifting away from export driven growth model. Chart 1. China Car Sales
Baltic dry index rose 10.0% last week; Capesize Index was up 19.2%; Panamax Index fell 0.4%; Supramax Index rose 2.8%; Handysize Index was down 0.5%. So, capesizes again leading. Strong iron ore demand from China. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. […]
Baltic dry index rose 0.3% last week; Capesize Index was up 9.5%; Panamax Index fell 11.3%; Supramax Index fell 1.9%; Handysize Index was down 2.9%. So, capesize gains offset other component losses. Data flow is tainted by holiday season in China (Mid Autumn Festival – from September 22 to September 24 and National Day – from October 1 to […]
(For September 2010) China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI rose from 51.7 to 53.8. Both China PMI’s suggest that China industrial production figures for September will improve a bit. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI; HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI; China Industrial Production […]
(For September 2010) HSBC/Markit China PMI rose from 49.4 to 52.9. It appears that China industrial production figures for September will improve a bit. Chart 1. China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics PMI; HSBC Markit China Manufacturing PMI; China Industrial Production Growth
In last 7 sessions Baltic Dry Index declined 14.5%. This is little bit surprising since with the start of new quarter lower iron ore price kicks in. Maybe holiday season (Mid Autumn Festival – from September 22 to September 24 and National Day – from October 1 to October 7)… Chart 1. Baltic Dry Index
Baltic dry index fell 10.7% last week; Capesize Index was down 13.7%; Panamax Index also fell 13.7%; Supramax Indexes fell 1.7%; Handysize Index rose 0.6%, China iron ore stockpiles moved sharply higher offsetting last week’s inventory draw. We will probably see increased demand with the start of new quarter and lower iron ore benchmark prices. Not much happening […]
(For August 2010) Industrial production in China rose 13.9% y-o-y in August from 13.4% in July. The consensus was at 13.0%. Chart 1. China Industrial Production
(For August 2010) China retail sales rose 18.4% in August vs. 18.0% consensus and 18.2% growth in July. Chart 1. China Retail Sales Growth
(For August 2010) China Consumer Price Index was up 3.5% in August, right at the consensus. June reading was also at 3.5%. China Producer Price Index was up 4.3% in August vs. 4.5% consensus and 4.8% July reading. Again, most of the consumer price increase came from food. PPI eased again on a year level, but […]
(For August 2010) My impression from the August China macroeconomic data is that the Chinese government has speed up monetary expansion while keeping tight grip on real-estate and equity markets. The August speed up means that either the rate of expansion will slow down in the last quarter of 2010 or Chinese targets for this year will […]
Baltic dry index rose 4.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 2.1%; Panamax Index rose 8.7%; Supramax and Handysize Indexes gained 2.7% and 1.1% respectively. Iron ore stockpiles moved sharply lower, suggesting demand will be solid in near-term. Chart 1. Baltic Dry Indexes Relative Performance Chart 2. Baltic Dry Index Chart 3. Baltic Dry Index Components Chart 4. […]