Conference Board Leading Economic Index For September Rose 0.3%
(For September 2010)
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose 0.3% in September. The consensus was at 0.3%, prior revised reading (from +0.3%) was at 0.1%. On year level LEI is up 6.0% vs. 6.8% in August.
This is uber-Keynesian indicator as 43% of its value is derived from monetary factors (M2 and interest rate spread).
LEI contrary to ECRI Leading Index is pointing to minimal GDP growth.
From the press release:
Says Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board: “The LEI remains on a general upward trend, but it is growing at its slowest pace since the middle of 2009. There isn’t any indication of a relapse into another downturn through the end of the year.”
Says Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board: “More than a year after the recession officially ended, the economy is slow and has no forward momentum. The LEI suggests little change in economic conditions through the holidays or the early months of 2011.”
Chart 1. Conference Board Leading Economic Index
October 21st, 2010 at 8:50 am
Let’s not forget the April 2009 Conference Board LEI statement:
“There’s no reason to think that this recession is going to end any time this spring or this summer,” Ken Goldstein, an economist at the New York-based Conference Board, said.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aO9.Fo.LXTtQ
October 21st, 2010 at 8:53 am
LOL