Global Macro Perspectives
Empire State Manufacturing General Business Conditions Index for June came out at -8.5 vs. -4.0 consensus and prior reading of 8.8.
U.S. industrial production rose 0.1% in May. Consensus was at 0.2%, April reading was at 0.0%.
Baltic dry index rose 7.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 11.5%; Panamax Index rose 8.9%; Supramax Index was up 4.0%; Handysize Index rose 6.2%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 6.3%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index fell -0.4%.
September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading was reported at 57.5 vs. 60.2 consensus and 59.4 September reading.
U.S. retail sales were rose 1.1% in September vs. 0.7% consensus. August reading was at 0.3% (revised from 0.0%). On year level retail sales are up 7.9%.
The most broad measure of money supply – M2 rose 13.0% y-o-y in September vs. 14.0% consensus and 13.5% rise in August.
China Consumer Price Index was up 6.1% in September, vs. 6.1% consensus and 6.2% August reading. Food inflation remained unchanged at 13.4%.
China Producer Price Index was fell to 6.5% from 7.3% in August. Consensus was at 6.9%.
The macro data will be the main factor driving the price of oil. The demand data was strong in the recent weeks, but came tepid in the last reading. The price has moved fast form deeply oversold into overbought, so the risks are to the downside.
Working gas in storage rose 112 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 102 Bcf.
Storage level is 69 Bcf lower than same time year ago and has moved above 5-year average.
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Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 404.000 vs. 405.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 405.000.
China trade balance was reported at USD 14.5 billion vs. USD 17.8 billion in August and USD 16.3 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 17.1 and 20.9 percent vs. 24.5 and 30.2 percent y-o-y in June.
This is fun. A colorful discussion with lots of opposing views.
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