Global Macro Perspectives
Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, talks about the outlook for a U.S. recession. He speaks with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance Midday.” (Source: Bloomberg)
CNBC: ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan: We Are Moving Into Recession
U.S. new home sales fell 2.3% to 295.000 SAAR; Consensus was at 293.000 SAAR, prior reading (revised upward 4.000) was at 301.000 SAAR.
Baltic dry index rose 8.8% last week; Capesize Index was up 17.1%; Panamax Index fell 5.4%; Supramax Index was up 2.0%; Handysize Index rose 1.3%.
Iron ore inventory close to all time high, price unchanged; Steel inventory and price mostly unchanged; Coal inventory down, price stable.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August was reported at -0.43 vs. revised July reading of -0.02. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at -0.28.
CFNAI is pointing to mild economic growth.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index rose 1.6%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 3.7%.
*** The Big Picture: Look Out Below, Post FOMC Version ***
*** FT Alphaville: Chinese exporters starting to do it tough ***
*** FT Alphaville: US unemployment is, well, not so bad! ***
*** MarketWatch: Grantham: ‘No market for young men’ ***
*** SFGate: BlackRock Buys Junk Debt at Spreads Exceeding Bearish Scenarios ***
*** DealB%k: New Buffett Manager Gets Higher Taxes and Less Pay, by Choice ***
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 423.000 vs. 420.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 432.000.
Actions as expected: operation twist has started. The committee has described the economic condition much more negatively then expected.
*** The Big Picture: Pushing on a String ***
*** Wall Street Journal: Daniel Yergin: There Will Be Oil ***
*** Econobrowser: More thoughts on peak oil ***
*** Infectious Greed: The Case for Ignoring Dan Yergin on Oil Prices ***
*** The Big Picture: 26 things you can learn by living abroad for a year ***
U.S. housing starts in August fell 5.0% to 571.000 vs. revised (11.000 higher) 601.000 July reading. Consensus was at 590.000. On year level U.S. housing starts are down 5.8%.
*** Macro Man: On The Therapist’s Couch ***
*** FT Alphaville: S&P downgrades Italy ***
*** FT Alphaville: Siemens in knots ***
*** The Big Picture: How Rare: S&P Dividend Yields vs Treasuries ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Why I Continue to Never Short AAPL ***
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, discusses the European debt crisis, investment strategy and the global economy. He speaks with Erik Schatzker at the Bloomberg Markets 50 Summit in New York.
*** FT Alphaville: Breaking on FedWire… ***
*** FT Alphaville: Chinese decoupling, meet Chinese stagflation ***
*** Jesse’s Café Américain: A Closer Look at the Gold Continuation Triangle, and the Coming Breakout to 2100 ***
*** npr: U.S. Skating On Thin Ice ***
*** The Slope Of Hope: Very Interesting NASDAQ 100 Analog ***
Housing Market Index for September was reported at 14, down from 15 in August. Consensus was at 15.
I haven’t take a look at this for half a year. Still looking extremely weak.