U.S. Petroleum Weekly – August 25, 2011
With Libya returning to the market soon, further negative pressure possible.
Global Macro Perspectives
With Libya returning to the market soon, further negative pressure possible.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for July was reported at -0.06 vs. revised June reading of -0.38. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at -0.3.
Baltic dry index rose 13.6% last week; Capesize Index was up 19.9%; Panamax Index rose 5.9%; Supramax Index was up 6.6%; Handysize Index rose 0.9%.
Working gas in storage rose 50 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 47 Bcf.
Storage level is 179 Bcf lower than same time year ago and bellow 5-year average.
Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 408.000 vs. 405.000 consensus and last week revised (up 4.000) reading of 399.000.
U.S. consumer price index rose 0.5% in July vs. 0.2% consensus and June reading of -0.2%. On year level CPI inflation is running at 3.6%.
U.S. producer price index rose 0.2% in July vs. 0.1% consensus. June reading was at -0.4%. On year level PPI is up 7.2%.
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index fell 2.2%; Baltic Clean Tanker Index rose 0.3%.
Baltic dry index rose 1.5% last week; Capesize Index was up 2.6%; Panamax Index rose 2.2%; Supramax Index was up 0.4%; Handysize Index fell 2.7%.
Iron ore inventory at all time high, price unchanged; Steel inventory and price stable; Thermal coal inventory and price stable.
March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading was reported at 54.9 vs. 62.0 consensus and 63.7 July reading.
Working gas in storage rose 25 Bcf from previous week. Consensus was at 35 Bcf.
Storage level is 202 Bcf lower than same time year ago and bellow 5-year average.
U.S. retail sales were reported up 0.5% in July vs. 0.5% consensus. June reading was at 0.3% (revised from 0.1%). On year level retail sales are up 8.5%.
Technically crude oil (WTI) looks heavily oversold. Massive fall in total crude oil and distillates inventory.
China trade balance was reported at USD 31.5 billion vs. USD 22.3 billion in June and USD 27.4 billion consensus. Export and import growth were running at 20.4 and 22.9 percent vs. 17.9 and 19.3 percent y-o-y in June.
Strong set of figures.
Most important sentence: “The Committee currently anticipates that economic conditions–including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run–are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through mid-2013.” Economic growth so far this year has been considerably slower than the Committee had expected.
Three dissenters!!!