Global Macro Perspectives
*** Macro Man: Looking over the edge ***
*** FT Alphaville: What’s wrong with Greece bailout II… ***
*** Bloomberg: Investors Raise Bullish Commodity Bets by Most in Year as Economy Expands ***
*** Bloomberg: BP Breakup Worth $100 Billion to JPMorgan as Investors Doubt Dudley’s Plan ***
Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June was reported at -0.46 vs. revised May reading of -0.55. Chicago Fed National Activity Index 3-month moving average is at -0.6.
CFNAI is pointing to zero economic growth, when index 3-month moving average moves bellow -0.7 there is “an increasing likelihood that a recession has begun”. Very close…
Baltic dry index fell 0.1% last week; Capesize Index was up 3.6%; Panamax Index fell 9.9%; Supramax Index was down 1.2%; Handysize Index fell 1.2%.
Iron ore inventory at all time high, price unchanged. Steel inventory declining, price stable. Massive increase in coal stockpiles, price also stable.